WHO: #2 Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 7:15 PM CT (Saturday, December 2, 2023)
WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
TV: FOX (Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, Jenny Taft)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 84
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: n/a (dome)
LINE: Michigan -22.0 (total of 34.5)

The stakes are clear for this game: either Iowa pulls off the biggest upset in the history of the Big Ten Championship Game and wins its first outright Big Ten title since 2004 or Michigan wins its third straight Big Ten title and rolls into the College Football Playoff. The Wolverines are prohibitive favorites to win the game (-22), while the Hawkeyes are massive underdogs. On paper, this game looks like an utter mismatch. Can Iowa make the on-field game more competitive than the on-paper version?

Michigan ranks 13th in scoring offensive, at 37.6 ppg, although the Wolverines are just 59th in total offense, at 394.5 yards per game. The Wolverines' yards-per-play average of 6.36 ranks 33rd nationally. Michigan ranks 53rd in rushing offense, at 169.8 yards per game, and 56th in yards per carry, at 4.44. The Wolverines' 33 touchdowns on the ground is tied for third-best in the nation.

The main man in the Michigan ground game has been senior RB Blake Corum, who is fourth in the Big Ten with 976 yards rushing (4.8 yards per carry), but has a staggering 22 rushing touchdowns this season. When Michigan gets the ball near the end zone, Corum tends to find a way to score a touchdown.

Backup RB Donovan Edwards has 354 yards and three touchdowns, albeit on only 3.3 yards per carry. QB JJ McCarthy is also a bit of a threat to move the ball with his legs; he has 181 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground this season.

Obviously, McCarthy's main threat is through the air. Michigan ranks 68th nationally in passing offense, at 224.8 yards per game, and with a very healthy 21-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. McCarthy has been extremely accurate -- and efficient -- through the air this season. His 74.3% completion rate ranks second nationally, behind only Oregon's Bo Nix (77.2%). His 9.7 yards per attempt average also ranks 5th nationally.

Senior WR Roman Wilson has been McCarthy's top threat in the passing game -- he leads the team in receptions (40), receiving yards (648), and touchdowns (11). Iowa not having Cooper DeJean available to help defend Wilson is a big blow for Iowa defensively.

Senior WR Cornelius Johnson has also been a prolific target for the Wolverines, with 33 catches for 503 yards and a touchdown. Tight ends Colston Loveland and AJ Barner round the set of Michigan's top pass-catchers. Loveland ranks second on the team in receptions (37), yards (550), and touchdowns (4).

The strong Michigan offensive line has not only been effective opening holes for Corum in the running game, it's also been successful at keeping McCarthy's pocket clean. Michigan allowed just 14.0 sacks, tied with Rutgers for the fewest-allowed in the Big Ten.

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On the other side of the ball, Michigan's defense has been a steel trap this season. The Wolverines lead the nation in scoring defense (10.3 ppg), with only five of seven opponents hitting double digits this season and only two (Maryland and Ohio State) exceeding 20 ppg. The nation's best scoring defense facing one of the nation's worst scoring offenses looks like a bad time for that terrible scoring offense.

Michigan is also 2nd nationally in total defense (246.8 ypg) and 4th in yards per play allowed (4.4). Michigan is 7th nationally in rushing defense (91.4 ypg) and 8th in yards per carry allowed (3.02 ypc). Michigan also ranks 4th in pass defense (166.3 ypg), 6th in passer rating (102.2), and 7th in opponent completion percentage (54.4%). The Wolverines have also allowed just seven touchdown passes against 16 interceptions this season.

Wolverine defenders have been average at creating havoc -- they're 67th in tackles for loss (68.0) and 40th in sacks (29.0). However, they've been among the nation's best at generating turnovers -- their +7 turnover margin is 3rd best nationally. The Wolverines have forced 21 turnovers (16 interceptions plus five forced fumbles) so far, tied for 18th best nationally.

Junior LB Junior Colson leads the team with 71 tackles on the season. Five Michigan defenders have at least 5.0 carries for weight, led by edges Jaylen Harrell and Josaiah Stewart and DL Mason Graham with 6.5 TFL apiece). Harrell and Stewart also lead the Wolverines in sacks, with 5.5 and 4.5 sacks, respectively.

Defensive back Mike Sainristil has been a particular threat through the air -- he as a team-high 5 interceptions, including a pair of pick-six returns. Defensive back Will Johnson is second on the team with two picks and one defensive touchdown as well. Sainristil also leads the team in passes broken up with five, ahead of several guys with four pass deflections.

Iowa has Tory Taylor, Michigan does not. Advantage: Iowa.

Michigan has junior punter Tommy Doman, whose 45.0 yards per punt average would rank 5th in the conference if he qualified for the Big Ten leaderboard. Doman doesn't qualify because he hasn't punted often enough; his 36 punts on the season is 43 fewer (!) than Taylor has attempted this season.

Senior placekicker James Turner is 12/14 on the season and his 86% conversion rate is second-best in the league. In a close game, there's likely to be more confidence in Turner to make a kick than Iowa's kicking game, despite Marshall Meeder's heroic game-winning kick last week.

Jake Thaw has returned 14 punt returns for 106 yards, a 7.57 yards per return average. Michigan hasn't been very effective at kickoff returns; the Wolverines have returned 15 kickoffs for 224 yards, a 14.9 yards per return average, which ranks 13th in the Big Ten.

There is a path to Iowa winning this game, which we've already discussed in great detail. It involves a lot of things going right for Iowa and a lot of things going wrong for MIchigan. Is it possible? Sure. But is it probable? No.

Michigan has a talent advantage over Iowa at every position except punter. Jim Harbaugh has used that talent advantage and improved tactics to out-coach Kirk Ferentz in the last two Iowa-Michigan games. The Big Ten East's best have figured out how to play (and overwhelm) Iowa in recent years and Ferentz hasn't found an effective counter-punch yet.

It would be easier to envision a possible Iowa upset if so many of the Hawkeyes' best players weren't going to be in street clothes on the Iowa sideline -- Cade McNamara, Luke Lachey, Erick All, Cooper DeJean. If Iowa had their best guys, it would be easier to see them having a puncher's chance to hit the plays they need to hit to knock off Michigan.

Instead, Iowa will have to play the hand that it's been dealt, with the players that it has available. From that perspective, it's just too hard to see Deacon Hill being able to make enough plays against the Michigan defense. Likewise, it's too hard to see the Iowa defense being able to hold back the patient and powerful Michigan offense for a full 60 minutes. At some point, slippage is inevitable.

Michigan 31, Iowa 10