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Published Sep 30, 2023
PREVIEW: Iowa vs Michigan State
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Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Michigan State Spartans (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:37 PM CT (Saturday, September 30, 2023)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
TV: NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 85
MOBILE: Peacock ($)
ONLINE: Peacock ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: high 70s, clear skies
LINE: Iowa -10.5

THE SCOOP

A few notes as Iowa welcomes Michigan State for a "blackout" night game the week after a one-sided loss to Penn State:

* Iowa is 7-5 over the last 10 seasons in the game immediately following a loss of 10+ points.

* Iowa is 5-0 in all-black alternate uniform (which they'll be wearing on Saturday night).

* Iowa is 8-3 in night games at Kinnick Stadium since 2015.

Iowa-Michigan State was one of the most intense rivalries in the Big Ten for a spell in the late '00s and early '10s, when the teams played regularly in some brutally hard-hitting games. The Hawkeyes and Spartans have played just three times since the Big Ten separated them into the West and East divisions (respectively) ahead of the 2014 season: the 2015 Big Ten Championship Game (a 16-13 MSU victory), 2017 (a 17-10 MSU win in East Lansing), and 2020 (a 49-7 Iowa win in Iowa City).

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE HAS THE BALL

Michigan State began the year 2-0, but that early success came against lesser competition. 76 of the 92 points Michigan State has scored this season came in those early games against Central Michigan (31) and Richmond (45). In their last two games, against Washington and Maryland, the Spartans have managed just 16 total points and two touchdowns.

The Spartans rank 9th in the Big Ten in scoring average (23.0 ppg) and 8th in the league in total offense (377 ypg). The strength of the MSU offense has been the passing attack -- the Spartans rank 3rd in the Big Ten in passing (266 ypg), although they rank 5th in QB rating (132.0) and 10th in completion percentage (57%). Against Washington and Maryland, Spartan QBs finished 40/79 (51%) for 482 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions.

Junior Noah Kim (6'2", 185) has been the starter at QB for MSU this season, going 66/116 (56.9%) for 897 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. Redshirt freshman QB Katin Houser (6'3", 215) came in for a spell against Maryland (6/10, 75 yards, 1 interception), but Michigan State interim head coach Harlon Bennett affirmed that Kim was still the team's starter. He's been mistake-prone against the better defenses he's faced this season, which could be a good sign for an Iowa team trying to regain its turnover mojo.

Senior WR Tre Mosley (62", 200) leads the team in receptions (13) and is third in receiving yards (157). Freshman WR Jaron Glover (6'1", 205) leads the team in receiving yards (203) on just nine catches so far. Junior WR Christian Fitzpatrick (6'4", 220) has also shown some big play chops this season, seven receptions for 166 yards and a 23.7 ypc average. Sophomore WR Tyrell Henry (6'0", 175) leads the team in receiving touchdowns, with two.

The Spartan running game hasn't been very effective this season. MSU ranks 12th in the league in rushing (111.0 ypg) and 12th in ypc (3.5). Running the ball was a particular struggle for MSU against Washington (27 carries for 53 yards, 1 TD) and Maryland (31 carries for 102 yards). Nate Carter has been the main rushing threat for MSU, with 73 carries for 369 yards (5.1 ypc) and four touchdowns (all against Richmond and Central Michigan).

WHEN IOWA HAS THE BALL

Under former head coach (and current special assistant) Mark Dantonio, Michigan State was known for ferocious defenses: they hit hard, forced turnovers, and made offenses earn every yard they got. This year's defense doesn't look like one of those vintage Spartan defenses.

MSU ranks 11th in scoring defense (23.3 ppg) and even that number is inflated by weak non-conference opposition -- the Spartans have allowed 36 ppg in their last two games, against Washington and Maryland. MSU is 10th in total defense (371.8 ypg) and allowed over 500+ ypg on average to Washington and Maryland -- though a lot of that average was from Washington and the stunning 713 yards the Huskies amassed against the Spartans.

Michigan State ranks 9th in passing defense (243.3 ypg) and dead last in QB rating (149.2) and 13th in completion percentage (64.8%). A fair amount of the opponent passing success against MSU came from one game, though: Washington's prodigious passing offense went 29/39 (74.4%) for 536 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. The Iowa passing game this season is not quite on par with that.

The Spartans rank 9th in run defense as well (128.5 ypg) and 10th in yards per carry (3.8). Maryland and Washington posted strong results against the MSU run defense as well; Washington racked up 177 yards and averaged 5.4 ypc, while Maryland had 139 yards and 4.5 ypc.

MSU's leading tacklers are S Malik Spencer (6'1", 195) and CB Dillon Tatum (5'11", 200), with 26. LB Cal Haladay (6'1", 235) has 25 tackles. LB Aaron Brule (6'2", 240) leads the team with 2.0 sacks while DE Zion Young (6'6", 265) leads the team with 3.5 tackles for loss and is tied for the team lead with four QB hurries. Seven different Spartans have at least one sack. Haladay is also one of three Spartans with an interception this season, though no player has more than one.

The Spartans have also forced just four turnovers this season, tied for second-fewest in the Big Ten. (Iowa has forced the fewest turnovers in the Big Ten this season, with only tree.)

SPECIAL TEAMS NOTES

Michigan State ranks 12th in the conference in punting (40.2 yards per punt), but one advantage of those short punts has been virtually no punt returns by opponents -- the Spartans have allowed just one return for three yards in four games this season. While the Spartans might struggle to flip field position in the punting game, they could also deny Cooper DeJean many opportunities to make a big play in the return game.

Senior Michael O'Shaughnessy and freshman Ryan Eckley have split punting duties this season, with basically identical results (40.1 yards per punt).

Tyrell Henry has posted solid numbers as a punt returner (8 for 66 yards, an average of 8.3 yards per return), but most of that success came against Central Michigan in MSU's season opener (six returns for 55 yards). He's returned just two punts for 11 yards in the last three games.

Placekicker Jonathan Kim has been solid this season, going 3/4 on field goals in the first four games. His only miss came from 40+ yards, though he's also 1/1 from 50+ yards. Kim also handled kickoffs and 9 of his 17 attempts have been touchbacks this season. Four kickoffs have been returned for 96 yards, an average of 24 yards per return.

THE PICK

There could be a lot of desperate football on Saturday night. Michigan State enters this game just days after former head coach Mel Tucker was officially fired and on the heels of back-to-back losses by 20+ points. It's hard to say how the Spartans players might react to all the turmoil. Meanwhile, Iowa comes into the game after a comprehensive 31-0 beating at Penn State last week.

This game feels like one where an early fast start could be crucial. The night game crowd will be buzzing for Iowa at kickoff -- if the Hawkeyes can score some quick points and get some early stops, it's not hard to see things snowballing in Iowa's favor and an embattled Spartan squad checking out of the game.

It won't be hard for the Hawkeyes to play with a chip on their shoulders after what happened last week and that should lead to much-improved performances on offense and defense. Cade McNamara goes for 220+ passing yards and a pair of touchdodwns, the wide receivers make a few big plays, and Cooper DeJean finally gets his first interception of the season.

Iowa 24, Michigan State 13

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