WHO: North Florida Ospreys (4-3)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Wednesday, November 29, 2023)
WHERE: LionTree Arena (San Diego, CA) Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
)MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -26.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -23 (Iowa 98% chance of winning; Iowa 93, North Florida 70)
After a 1-1 trip out to San Diego, the Iowa men's basketball team is back inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena for a late-night tip against a 4-3 North Florida team. Consider this game the calm before next week's storm: the Hawkeyes have three games in seven days next week, with road trips to Purdue (Monday) and Iowa State (Thursday) before wrapping up at home against Michigan (Sunday).
That stretch should be another stiff early season text, which means the North Florida game should be for finding and maintaining an offensive rhythm and getting more minutes for the younger members of the roster.
North Florida enters this game at 4-3, despite playing a pretty soft schedule to date -- they've only faced one opponent (#91 LSU last Friday, a 75-63 loss) ranked higher than 258th in the KenPom rankings. North Florida's four wins have come against Coastal Georgia, Charleston Southern, Northwestern State, and Maine, while their losses have been against South Carolina State, Presbyterian, and LSU.
PROJECTED NORTH FLORIDA STARTING FIVE
G Ametri Moss (9.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 45.1 FG%, 0 3FG%)
G Oscar Berry (3.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 22.6 FG%, 18.5 3FG%)
G Chaz Lanier (16.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 44.6 FG%, 44.0 3FG%)
F Dorian James (9.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 46.2 FG%, 12.5 3FG%)
F Nate Lliteras (6.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 30.8 FG%, 16.2 3FG%)
The Ospreys are coached by Matt Driscoll, who's actually been at North Florida longer than Fran McCaffery has been at Iowa (Driscoll started in 2009, McCaffery began at Iowa in 2010). He's gone 221-234 15+ years at North Florida, highlighted by an NCAA Tournament trip in 2015. The Ospreys have had losing records in five of the last six seasons.
During his press conference earlier in the week, McCaffery indicated that he was impressed with how the Ospreys have played so far this year. "[They] play hard, shoot a ton of threes, but they're not playing nuts. They're not running around shooting crazy -- they move the ball, they share the ball, they emphasize shooting a lot of threes," said McCaffery. "Over 50 percent of the shots they take are threes. They've got a lot of different guys that can shoot them. It's not just one or two guys."
He's right about the Ospreys attempting a lot of 3-point shots this season -- slightly more than 50% of their shot attempts this year have been 3-pointers, which ranks 5th nationally. North Florida has made 34.6% of their 3-point attempts this season, which ranks 120th nationally. North Florida has attempted at least 24 3-pointers in every game this season and made at least 11 3s in all but two games. They're going to put up a lot of shots from deep.
Six players have attempted at least 24 3-point shots this season, with three players shooting 44% or better from deep -- Chaz Lanier (44%), Jah Nze (46.7%), and Jake van der Heijden (45.2%). Those are the guys Iowa needs to watch the most around the perimeter.
Aside from 3-point shooting, North Florida is also lethal at the free throw line, shooting 84% from the stripe. They don't get to the free throw line very often, though -- they rank 276th nationally in free throw rate.
North Florida struggles to make shots inside the 3-point arc and especially around the rim -- they're making just 46.1% of their 2-point attempts, which ranks 286th nationally. The Ospreys also give the ball away via steals on almost 10.5% of their offensive possessions and get a lot of shots blocked (15.7%, 359th nationally). Unsurprisingly, they're also a poor offensive rebounding team -- a 25.8% offensive rebounding rate, 271st nationally.
North Florida's biggest struggles are on the defensive side of the ball. The Ospreys rank 350th in defensive efficiency and have been allowing teams to post an effective FG% of 48.8%, 151st nationally. They don't block many shots (7.0%, 262nd) or force many turnovers either (15% turnover rate, 302nd).
Lanier has been North Florida's top scorer, averaging 16.0 ppg, and he's a threat inside and out. The only other player averaging double figures this season is Jah Nze, scoring 10.1 ppg off the bench in just 17 minutes per game. Ametri Moss is averaging just under double figures (9.9 ppg), but does all his damage inside the arc -- he's only attempted three 3-pointers this season, but he's making 46% of his attempts inside the 3-point line.
For Iowa, this feels like a game where Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele could be a real asset on defense; Freeman is already averaging 1.7 blocks per game this season and letting him defend the rim against a team that's already bad at scoring near the bucket seems should work well. Dembele has just one official block this year, but he has the length and athleticism to get more, or to disrupt shots at minimum.
On offense, the Hawkeyes should take advantage of their size advantage and their ability to attack the rim and score in the paint. If this game turns into a 3-point shooting contest, that could make for a nervy game, depending on how hot North Florida (and Iowa) are from beyond the arc. But if Iowa can make use of their advantages inside the arc, they could take control of this game and pick up a relatively easy win.
