WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (10-8, 2-5 Big Ten)
WHEN: 1:00 PM CT
WHERE: Value City Arena (Columbus, OH)
TV: FOX (Gus Johnson and Jim Jackson)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | Sirius/XM 391
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Ohio State -3.5
KENPOM: Ohio State -5 (66% chance of winning)

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (10.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.5 bpg, 40.9 FG%, 28.9 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (5.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.2 bpg, 35.4 FG%, 29.3 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 45.9 FG%, 38.3 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (21.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.3 bpg, 51.6 FG%, 37.0 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.4 bpg, 57.1 FG%, 40.0 3FG%)

Ohio State
G Bruce Thornton (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.1 bpg, 43.1 FG%, 43.1 3FG%)
G Sean McNeil (9.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 42.2 FG%, 39.1 3FG%)
F Justice Sueing (13.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.3 bpg, 44.2 FG%, 25.5 3FG%)
F Brice Sensabaugh (17.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.5 bpg, 49.5 FG%, 45.8 3FG%)
C Zed Key (12.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.2 bpg, 59.8% FG, 30.0 3FG%)

Iowa and Ohio State enter this game with their seasons going in very different directions. The Hawkeyes have rebounded from a three-game losing streak in December to win four straight games. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes haven't won a game since New Year's Day, dropping their last five games in a row. And yet OSU enters this game as a 3.5-point favorite over Iowa. Is that just a function of home court? Probably not -- advanced metrics like KenPom still like the Buckeyes quite a bit, even as they're mired in a five-game losing streak.

OSU ranks 21st in the KenPom rankings, 10 spots ahead of Iowa at #31. While the Buckeyes have dropped five straight games, four of those losses have been by a combined 12 points... and the fifth defeat was by seven points. Ohio State hasn't become a bad team -- the Buckeyes have just been improbably bad in close games over the last three weeks -- in fact, they rank 362nd in the nation in the luck rating, per KenPom. Only one team (Stanford) has had worse luck this year. It's reasonable to expect that OSU's fortunes will turn around at some point, and the bounces will start to go their way a bit more frequently.

Late-game execution has been an issue in all of their recent defeats, but uncharacteristically poor shooting has also been a problem for the Buckeyes in the most recent defeats. OSU was just 33% on 2-point attempts against Rutgers (34% overall from the field) and 39% on 2-point attempts against Nebraska (36% overall). How unusual is that? Ohio State ranks 11th nationally in offensive efficiency and has been averaging 50.6% on 2-point attempts (and 38.2% on 3-point tries) this season. In fact, Ohio State's profile looks a lot like Iowa's this season: highly efficient offense (11th for OSU, 5th for Iowa) and a pretty so-so defensive efficiency rating (81st for OSU, 122nd for Iowa). If shots are falling, Saturday's game could easily turn into a shootout. In addition to (usually) being a good-shooting team, OSU also doesn't turn the ball over much on offense (just 16.4% of possessions, 44th best nationally) and they rebound their misses well (grabbing 34% of their offensive rebounds, 33rd best).

On defense, OSU's strength is contesting shots -- while they rank just 88th in blocks (10.7% of possessions) they've been able to harass shooters effectively. Opponents are only making 29.1% of their 3-point attempts (19th nationally) and just 46.7% of their 2-point tries (64th nationally). What the Buckeyes don't do on defense is force turnovers -- only 16.9% of opponent possessions end in a turnover (280th nationally) and just 7.5% of opponent possessions end in a steal (316th nationally). So an Iowa offense that doesn't the ball over much (Iowa ranks 4th nationally in turnover rate on offense) will be facing an Ohio State defense that doesn't generate many turnovers.

The main man for Ohio State this season has been star forward Brice Sensabaugh (6-6, 235), who's gone from 4* recruit and Top 100 recruit a season ago to the Buckeyes' leading scorer (17.0 ppg) and second-best rebounder (5.6 rpg). He's done that despite only starting half of OSU's games this season, though he's started 9 of the last 10 games. Sensabaugh has been averaging 19.9 ppg and 8.6 rpg during OSU's recent losing streak, so it would be hard to assign much blame to him for those Buckeye defeats. He's a prolific and versatile scorer, able to score inside and out -- in fact, he's Ohio State's top three-point shooter. He's attempted the second-most threes this season (83) and he's converting at a 45.8% clip. Sensabaugh is also a lights out free throw shooter, converting 81% of his tries from the line. In short, he's going to be an absolute handful for Iowa to try and defend in this game.

Just two other OSU players are averaging double figures in scoring -- forward Justice Sueing and center Zed Key. Key (6-8, 255) has been a menace in the paint, making almost 65% of his 2-point shots. He's also averaging a team-high 8.0 rpg. Key missed most or all of OSU's games against Purdue and Maryland due to injury in the recent losing streak and just re-entered the starting lineup in the Buckeyes' last game, against Nebraska. He's been a consistent double-double threat and will be a key player for Iowa to slow down. Sueing is second on the team in scoring (13.1 ppg) and third in rebounding (4.8 rpg), but he's been in a major funk lately (only 4 points against Nebraska and 7 points against Rutgers, part of an 8/29 shooting slump over his last three games). He's also been a bit careless with the ball, averaging almost three turnovers per game during Ohio State's losing skid.

Battle of the backcourts. The offensive strength for both Iowa and Ohio State is in their front courts; Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca have been the most consistent and prolific players for Iowa's offense, just as Sensabaugh, Sueing, and Key have been for OSU. If both sides produce to their usual levels in this game, that match-up could end up as a virtual draw. And if that's the case, the deciding factor in the game may come from the guards. Tony Perkins had a game-high 22 points in Iowa's win over Maryland, while Ahron Ulis added 9 points and 4 assists and Connor McCaffery had 12 points and 4 assists. Their ability to keep that strong form going in Columbus could go a long way in deciding this game.

Winning the free throw battle. Almost 20% of Iowa's points in a game come via the free throw line and the Hawkeyes get to the free throw line quite a bit; 87th nationally in free throw rate. The Hawkeyes have outpaced all of their opponents at the free throw line during their current winning streak. Meanwhile, Ohio State ranks among the worst in the nation at free throw rate (288th nationally) and faces an Iowa defense that is among the nation's best at not fouling. This is a category the Hawkeyes are set up to dominate -- but if they don't, it could make their path to victory much trickier.