Preview: No. 2 Iowa WBB at No. 18 Ohio State
WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (13-3 overall, 5-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:00am CT (Sunday, January 21)
WHERE: The Schottenstein Center (Columbus, Ohio)
TV: NBC
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
MOBILE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
Ohio State made the Elite Eight last year, defeating UConn in the Sweet Sixteen in the process. This year, the Buckeyes returned all but one starter from that Elite Eight team and added one of the best players in the transfer portal. With so much returning experience, the Buckeyes were a popular pick to win the Big Ten and to advance to the Final Four.
Thus far, the Buckeyes haven't lived up to those expectations. They've played two ranked opponents--USC and UCLA--and lost both game by nine points and six points, respectively. They also lost by nine points at Michigan in late December. The Wolverines are among ESPN's first four teams out of the tournament in the latest Bracketology.
The Buckeyes' best wins this season are all in conference. They beat Penn State by 10 in overtime at home, beat Michigan State by five at home, and won by eight at Maryland on Wednesday.
All stats from this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Top Players
5'10" point guard Jacy Sheldon is one of the top two-way players in the country. Sheldon averages 17.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, and 2.2 spg. She's shooting 57.7% on 2-point attempts and 37.0% on 3-point tries. Sheldon was hurt much of last year and didn't play in Iowa's game at Ohio State last season and played only limited minutes in the Big Ten Tournament championship game.
6'0" forward Cotie McMahon was Big Ten Freshman of the Year last year, and was expected to develop into a star as a sophomore. Thus far, that hasn't quite happened. McMahon has been solid, but plagued by somewhat inefficient shooting. She averages 13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 1.1 spg while shooting 50.4% on 2-point tries and 25.0% on long distance efforts.
6'1" forward Taylor Thierry is quietly one of the best players in the Big Ten. She's averaging 13.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.8 spg while shooting 66.0% inside the arc and 42.1% from beyond the arc. With shooting percentages that good, she should probably be shooting more.
5'11" guard Celeste Taylor was a finalist last year for the Nasmith Women's Defensive Player of the Year Award last year at Duke. She was one of the best players in the transfer portal, and her move to Ohio State was supposed to help the Buckeye defense take another step fprward.
Thus far, Taylor hasn't quite reached that level. She's averaging 9.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.1 spg, and 1.0 bpg while shooting 45.7% on 2-point field goals and 26.7% on 3-point attempts. In the half court, Taylor will likely guard Caitlin Clark frequently; it should be interesting if she's able to slow down Clark at all.
6'4" post Rebeka Mikulasikova poses interesting matchup issues for Iowa. She's a solid scorer from 2, but also spends plenty of time on the perimeter. She's averaging 9.1 ppg and 3.1 rpg, while shooting 55.7% on 2-point attempts and 40.5% on 3-point tries. In prior years, Iowa was forced to have Monika Czinano guard her in its player-to-player defense. That led to Iowa playing more zone or triangle-and-two.
This year with Hannah Stuelke as the 5, Iowa should be able to use more player-to-player defense. Mikulasikova's matchup issues could mean that Sharon Goodman or Addison O'Grady don't see as much time as usual, though. Iowa could instead turn to its small lineup with Kate Martin in the 5 when Stuelke is out.
Play Style
Ohio State is a team defined by its full court press. The Buckeyes force 20.6 turnovers per game, and average 25.8 points per game off turnovers. At its best, the press is stifling. It can help the Buckeyes go on quick runs at any time that can flip a game.
But there are also downsides to a press. If your opponent can break it quickly, they usually have numbers and an opportunity for a quick basket in transition.
In Clark, Iowa has one of the best press breakers in basketball. Last year, the Hawkeyes feasted on Ohio State's press. The Hawkeyes were so effective against it in their game at Ohio State that the Buckeyes eventually took the press off. And in the Big Ten Tournament Iowa blitzed Ohio State so quickly that the game was over before it really began.
The good news for Iowa is that all of its guard depth returns from last year's team. The starters and bench have seen Ohio State's press before and have beaten it.
Because of the press, Ohio State plays at a very fast tempo. The Buckeyes average 75.0 possessions per 40, which ranks in the 85th percentile.
Offensively, Ohio State averages 82.1 points per game, which ranks 13th nationally. The Buckeyes have been shooting 53.9% on 2-point attempts (19th) and 33.3% on 3-point field goals (103rd). One weakness to the Buckeye offense is offensive rebounding. They only grab 31.9% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks 168th.
Defensively, Ohio State surrenders 62.7 points per game, which ranks 122nd. Buckeye opponents shoot much better on 2-point tries (45.4%) than 3-point attempts (27.5%). The Buckeyes also don't rebound particularly well on the defensive end. They grab 69.8% of defensive rebounds, which ranks 139th.
X-Factor
Three-point shooting. If Iowa beats Ohio State's press the Hawkeyes should get some easy looks at the basket, but more often it will have an opportunity to shoot wide open threes. If the Hawkeyes are able to connect on a good percentage of those threes early, it could be devastating for Ohio State. Hitting threes could pull Ohio State out of its press. It could also help Iowa build an early lead and make Ohio State play from behind like it did in both games last year.
Conversely, bad shooting nights have led to some of Iowa's worst results of the season. Iowa was only 2-of-21 from three in its loss to Kansas State. The Hawks were just 9-for-30 from deep in their narrow win over Michigan State.