WHO: #12 Iowa State Cyclones (1-1)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Saturday, November 23, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN+ (Hayden Hoxmeier, Tim Johnson, AJ Reisetter)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Steven Grace, Mark Ironside)
MOBILE: BTN+ ($)
ONLINE: BTN+ ($)
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN
Can Iowa keep The Streak going for another season? Iowa's dual-meet winning streak against Iowa State currently sits at 19 and counting, as well as 34 of the last 35 meetings. Tom Brands will also be putting his 18-0 record against Iowa State as the Iowa head coach on the line.
2024 is the 20th anniversary of the last time Iowa State beat Iowa in a dual meet, a 19-16 Cyclone victory in Iowa City in 2004. The Cyclones have come close to ending the streak in recent years, though; after over a decade of one-sided domination by the Hawkeyes, three of the last five Cy-Hawk dual meets have been narrow Iowa wins. Iowa edged Iowa State 19-18 in 2018 and had tight 18-15 and 18-14 wins in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Iowa State could field its strongest lineup on Saturday night, featuring ranked wrestlers at nine of ten weights (depending on the wrestler and the ranking service), including five wrestlers ranked in the top 10 at their respective weights.
PROBABLE STARTERS
In a break from recent seasons (and the majority of the Tom Brands era at Iowa, for that matter), the strengths of this Iowa roster are in the middleweights and upper weights. The lower weights have long been the dominant force at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, but this year's competitors at 125-133-141 aren't as strong as what Iowa has had at those weight in the recent past. The exception that proves the rule: Drake Ayala, the NCAA runner-up at 125, remains very formidable at his new weight of 133.
Many of those lower weights look like toss-ups or slight/solid favorites for Iowa State, and certainly the Cyclones need to win those lower weight coinflips in order to end their losing streak. Failure to win at least two (if not all three) of those weights would leave ISU needing to get some upset wins at heavier weights.
The central portion of the dual meet should be the highlight of the evening, as both teams have some high-end middleweights available. The standout match of the dual could be either 149, between #4 Kyle Parco and ISU's #7 Anthony Echemendia or at 157, between #1 Jacori Teemer and #10 Paniro Johnson.
Parco and Teemer have both looked stellar for Iowa early in their Hawkeye careers, but Echemendia and Johnson will both represent significant steps up in quality.
If MJ Gaitan gets the nod for ISU at 165, that would be a third-consecutive weight featuring two top 10-ranked wrestlers. Iowa's #2 Michael Caliendo would be favored to beat Gaitan, but not overwhelmingly so.
While the biggest strength of Iowa's roster is that middleweight gauntlet of 149-157-165, the upper weights aren't slouches, either.
Iowa has a top 10-ranked wrestler at 174 (#10 Nelson Brands), 184 (#7 Gabe Arnold), and 197 (#2 Stephen Buchanan), and Ben Kueter is knocking on the door of the Top 10 at 285 (currently #13, per InterMat).
The Hawkeyes look to have a clear advantage at 174, 184, and 197 as well. Former Iowa wrestler Aiden Riggins is expected to get the start for ISU at 174, but he'll be a heavy underdog against either Brands or Patrick Kennedy. Arnold was just about the only Iowa wrestler not to dominate against Bellarmine last week, but he'll be a solid favorite at 184 and Stephen Buchanan, the top-ranked 197er by every service except InterMat, should have Iowa's best shot at earning bonus points in the dual meet.
Outside of the middleweight clashes, the heavyweight showdown between #13 Kueter and #4 Yonger Bastida could be one of the night's more intriguing matches. Both Kueter and Bastida are athletic, attack-oriented heavyweights who could put together a memorable scrap at 285.
Overall, the balance of the weights seem tilted in Iowa's favor for this dual. An outcome like a 19-12 Iowa win seems about right. But there are enough tight-looking matches in this dual that there's still considerable potential for intrigue at multiple weights.
We'll find out exactly how it all shakes out on Saturday night at 6 PM CT on BTN+.
