WHO: 6-seed Colorado
WHEN: Friday, March 24 at 6:30 PM CT
WHERE: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app

Thanks to a flurry of upsets, Iowa is now a betting favorite to reach the Final Four. On Friday, the Hawkeyes will play 6-seed Colorado in the Sweet Sixteen. If they take care of business in that game, they'll play either 5-seed Louisville or 8-seed Ole Miss in the Elite Eight. Each of those teams is capable of beating Iowa. But they were all 5-seeds or lower for a reason, too.

Colorado is actually fairly similar to Georgia. The Buffaloes are a physical, defense-first team that doesn’t shoot a lot of three-pointers. Let’s take a deeper look at the Buffs.

6’3" Forward Quay Miller -- 13.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 46% 2FG, 33% 3FG

Miller very versatile offensively. She has the height of a 5, but is fairly athletic for her size. She does a decent amount of her scoring inside, but also spends some time on the perimeter and attempts more than three three-pointers per game. She can also take a defender off the dribble with the right matchup. Miller is also far and away Colorado’s best rebounder.

5’7" Point Guard Jaylyn Sherrod --11.3 ppg, 4.9 apg, 2.4 spg, 43% 2FG, 32% 3FG

Sherrod is very fast -- far faster than any Iowa defender who might try to guard her. She likes to attack off the dribble, but doesn’t shoot particularly well when she does get to the basket. She shoots decently well from three-point range, but isn’t on the level of a Gabbie Marshall or Caitlin Clark. She's also Colorado’s most disruptive defender.

5’11" Guard Frida Foremann -- 11.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 38% 2FG, 39% 3FG.

Foremann is Colorado’s three-point specialist. She attempts six threes per game. She also attempts a reasonable number of shots inside the arc, but shoots a low percentage on those shots.

6’3" Center Aaronette Vonleh -- 12.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 59.6% 2FG.

Vonleh is Colorado’s center and she will spend most of her game in and around the post. She is a very good low post scorer, but isn’t a very good rebounder for her size and is a below-average shot blocker.

Colorado is far from the best offensive team. The Buffaloes rank 82nd nationally in points per 100 possessions. A big part of that is shot selection. The Buffaloes rank 269th in three-point rate, preferring instead to attack the basket, get the ball inside, or take two-point jumpers. Except Colorado actually ranks better in three-point shooting percentage (37th) than two-point shooting percentage (116th).

I expect that Iowa will use its zone defense significantly against Colorado. Both Sherrod and Miller are potential matchup problems in Iowa’s player-to-player defense, but the zone could help neutralize those concerns. Iowa also likes to force teams into taking two-point jumpers and Colorado attempted a lot of shots like that against Duke when Duke took away Colorado's dribble penetration.

The Buffalos also rank just 70th in offensive rebounding rate, which is far behind Georgia, who ranked 23rd.

Like Georgia, defense is Colorado’s calling card. The Buffs rank 35th in opponent’s points per 100 possessions, and Herhoopstats.com ranks the Buffaloes' defense as the 15th best defense in college basketball. By comparison, Georgia ranked 42nd in opponent’s points per 100 possessions, and 13th in Herhoopstats.com’s defensive ratings.

Against Duke, Colorado used a 2-3 zone. The Buffaloes occasionally extended the top two defenders in an attempt to trap the ballhandler. They also trapped aggressively when teams got the ball in the corners.

Georgia and Colorado even rank fairly similarly in steal rate. Georgia was 12th nationally, while Colorado ranks 20th.

That said, there are differences between the teams. One, Georgia played a 3-2 match zone. Not many teams play a 3-2 zone, so it was a defense that Iowa hadn’t seen often. Colorado’s 2-3 zone is more common.

Another difference is that most of Georgia’s team was very athletic relative to their respective position. By contrast, Colorado is all over the athleticism spectrum. Sherrod might be the quickest guard Iowa has played all year. Miller is athletic for her size, but not overly quick. Vonleh isn’t a particularly quick 5.

Colorado also ranks 224th in block rate. None of the Buffaloes' posts are rim protectors. That could be good news for Monika Czinano if Iowa can get the ball to her regularly.

Take care of the ball. Some turnovers are fine, all things considered. If Caitlin Clark sees a long pass and barely misses connecting with a teammate, that isn’t a bad turnover. It is a calculated risk that Clark should take.

Against Georgia, most of Iowa’s turnovers were mental mistakes. They were weak passes against an aggressive defense. Or dribbling into danger when it wasn’t needed. Or just not catching a routine entry pass.

Those unforced errors were nearly Iowa’s undoing against Georgia and are a huge risk against Colorado as well, given how similar the Buffaloes are to Georgia defensively. If Iowa can cut down on those mental mistake turnovers, then the Hawkeyes should have a great chance to win this game and advance to the Elite Eight.

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