WHO: #1 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Friday, February 9, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN (Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons)
RADIO: AM 800 KXIC (Steven Grace, Mark Ironside) | YouTube
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN
This was all lined up to be the showdown of the season, #1 versus #2, with two undefeated teams throwing down on the mat in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. And then Iowa had its flattest performance of the season last Friday and got utterly flattened by Michigan, 24-11.
That loss does take some of the shine off this match, though it's still a dual meet between the two biggest and most popular college wrestling programs, winners of 14 of the last 15 NCAA championships.
Regardless of the rankings and the records, though, there's a very real chance that this dual meet simply... isn't close. That's a function of both the gap between Penn State and Iowa (and, really, between Penn State and the rest of the country) and the challenging nature of several of the match-ups. At several of the weights where Iowa has its best wrestlers -- 125, 141, 157, 165, 174 -- Penn State has a wrestler as good or better.
Winning this dual meet looks like a daunting task for Iowa, even if the loss to Michigan last week lights a fire under them and produces much better wrestling than what was on display a week ago. If ever there was a time for Iowa to cash in on that Carver-Hawkeye Arena mystique, it would be for this dual. Here's the weight-by-weight breakdown:
Iowa enters this dual with a lineup featuring ranked wrestlers at nine of 10 weights, including Top 10-ranked wrestlers at five weights. That's very solid -- far from Iowa's best, but a solid showing overall.
It also pales in comparison to Penn State, who enters this dual with not just ranked wrestlers at each weight, but all 10 wrestlers ranked in the Top 10 at their respective weights. Five of of those 10 are ranked at #1 in their respective weight -- Beau Bartlett (141), Levi Haines (157), Carter Starocci (174), Aaron Brooks (184), and Greg Kerkvliet (285).
Iowa has used strong results at the upper weights to win several dual meets this season -- Patrick Kennedy has had a few crucial wins at 174 and Zach Glazier has personally clinched four dual wins for Iowa with wins at 197. They've been two of Iowa's most successful wrestlers this season -- and against Penn State they'll be taking on a pair of #1-ranked opponents in Starocci and Brooks.
There is not a single weight in this dual where Iowa is a clear favorite. Real Woods is 1-0 in his career against Bartlett (a 4-1 win at the dual last season), but considering that Woods is coming off his worst performance in two years and Bartlett is wrestling at a high level, it hardly feels like Woods would be any sort of favorite in that match.
141, 149, and 165 look like three of Iowa's best chances for victories; those weights all look pretty close to toss-ups and it's certainly possible for Iowa wrestlers to edge their Penn State counterparts in those bouts (especially at 141, since Woods does have a win over Bartlett).
Ayala should have a decent shout at getting an upset win at 125 as well, although Davis has been wrestling very well this year and has wins over two of the wrestlers who have defeated Ayala this year -- Michigan's Michael DeAugustino and Oregon State's Brandon Kaylor.
At 157, all of Jared Franek's matches tend to be wrestled very tightly and be decided by a single takedown. That approach has bit him a few times in recent weeks, but it can also keep him competitive with other top guys too. If he's able to keep the match close against Haines, he's entirely capable of getting the match-deciding takedown.
Things look daunting for Iowa outside of those weights, especially after 165. Penn State;s lineup is back-loaded with studs, as three of their five #1-ranked wrestlers are at 174 or higher.
PREDICTION
In years past, I've done a weight-by-weight breakdown for the Iowa vs Penn State dual because it's often been a tightly-contested affair between two pretty evenly-matched teams. A weight-by-weight prediction this year would involve a lot of Penn State wins, which is probably not what anyone cares to read.
In many recent seasons, Penn State has had a clear edge at the upper weights, but Iowa was able to counter that with a lot of strength at the lower weights. That isn't the case this season.
Between Penn State's improvements at the lower weights (and no corresponding drop-off at the upper weights) and Iowa's slight decline at the lower weights (no slight to this year's crew, but it's not on par with the Spencer Lee-Austin DeSanto-Jaydin Eierman-Max Murin lower weight core from a few seasons ago), Iowa's advantage at the lower weights looks to have all but disappeared. Meanwhile, Penn State's grip on the upper weights remains firm.
That said, any path to an Iowa victory -- or even a credible Iowa showing -- has to begin with success at the lower weights. Ayala, Woods, Rathjen, and Franek are very capable of getting wins in their matches, especially if the CHA atmosphere is able to give them a little extra mojo. The hill would still be steep in the upper weights, but if Iowa gets some wins early on, at least they could carry some positive momentum into the matches against Penn State's upper weight elites.
Wrestlestat has Penn State winning this dual meet 28-3, which would be a very sobering result for this team and the program as a whole. That outcome certainly isn't far-fetched, given Penn State's obvious quality up and down the lineup and the nature of the match-ups. Still, I think Iowa will win more than one match in this dual -- I'll say that they'll be able to scrape together three wins between 125 and 165.
Granted, even that would still leave the dual result lopsided in favor of Penn State, but that's also the state of college wrestling 2024 -- it's Penn State's world and everyone else is playing catch-up.
#1 Penn State 24, Iowa 9
