When Do Recruits Commit to Iowa WBB

In contrast to football and men's basketball, Signing Day is mostly an afterthought in women’s basketball. Teams often have their recruiting classes finished months or even a year or more in advance. Few top prospects wait until the last minute to sign.

But when do most recruits commit to Iowa? And what can that data tell us about where Iowa stands in the 2024, 2025, and 2026 recruiting classes?

To answer those questions, I reviewed the commitment dates of Iowa recruits from the class of 2015 through players currently committed in the classes of 2024 and 2025. That is a sample of ten classes and 34 high school recruits.

One note: Zion Sanders and Paula Valino Ramos from the class of 2017 were excluded from the sample. Sanders started as a walk-on at Iowa, and the incentives for a walk-on to commit are different enough from scholarship players that it wouldn't be an apples to apples comparison.

Ramos, an international recruit from Spain, actually committed to Iowa months after Signing Day. She was added at a time when Iowa's roster was thin and needed depth. With the advent of the transfer portal, a commitment like Ramos's is unlikely to happen in the future and was thus excluded as an outlier.

Generally women’s basketball recruits sign their national letter of intent in November of the year before they arrive on campus. As an example, the class of 2023 signed letters of intent on November 9, 2022.

The below chart shows how far in advance of Signing Day a recruit in the classes of 2015-2024 committed to Iowa:

On the chart, Iowa’s third highest period for gaining commitments is in the final three months before Signing Day. That number is a little deceptive, however.

The last Iowa recruit to commit in the last three months before Signing Day was Caitlin Clark in the class of 2020. Before Clark, McKenna Warnock (class of 2019), Tomi Taiwo (class of 2018), Logan Cook (class of 2018), Tania Davis (class of 2015), and Hannah Stewart (class of 2015) also committed in the last three months before Signing Day.

Clark's recruitment was most reminiscent of the recruitment of an elite football recruit. She took visits to some of the top schools in the country, before narrowing her list to Iowa, Iowa State, and Notre Dame in August 2019. She then verbally committed to Notre Dame, but didn't announce it publicly and later changed her mind. She waited until November 12--just two days before Signing Day--to announce her commitment to Iowa.

Warnock's recruitment shared some similarities with Clark's. She was a Top 100 recruit with notable offers from Stanford and Arizona. Like Clark, she was a priority target that Iowa was happy to wait for. Warnock ultimately committed to Iowa a month before Signing Day.

Cook's recruitment was different from Clark and Warnock. Cook went to Iowa City West and had family ties to Iowa (her father is Hawkeye legend Marv Cook) but didn't have an offer from Iowa for a long time. Iowa eventually did offer, and Cook committed 3 months before Signing Day.

The class of 2024 is just over 2 months from Signing Day. Teagan Mallegni was the fourth player to commit to Iowa's 2024 class on April 8th, and when she pledged, it seemed like the class might be done. Shateah Wetering transferred a few days later, however, opening another scholarship that Iowa could use on the 2024 class.

Recently Iowa landed in the Top 5 for 2024 prospect Aaliyah Guyton, a point guard from Peoria. Guyton is ranked #60 on ESPN's Top 100 list, and has Pittsburgh, Illinois, Michigan State, and Nebraska also in her Top 5.

Guyton's recruitment is somewhat reminiscent of Warnock's. Both are top 100 players from border states with other notable offers who left their recruitment open until late in the process. Iowa will hope that Guyton picks Iowa and that she can have the same impact on the program that Warnock did.

Iowa also might still be interested in 2024 Nebraska point guard Britt Prince. Prince's recruitment has been a rollercoaster. She started as one of the class's most sought-after players and took visits to Iowa, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Indiana, Creighton, Nebraska, North Carolina, NC State, Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA.

Then in November, 2022 Prince was involved in a scandal and started limiting her social media postings. Information about her recruitment has been scarce since then, and she has fallen to #25 on ESPN's class of 2024 rankings.

Pre-scandal, Prince's recruitment looked a lot like Clark's. She has waited until late in the process to commit just like Clark did. But the scandal and fallout from it have created an air of mystery about what teams are still involved and who her favorites might be.

The class of 2025 is just over 14 months from Signing Day, and just landed its first commitment in Journey Houston. That might seem late compared to the class of 2022, but in general it's right on track with most classes. 64.8% of Iowa's recruits commit sometime between 7 and 18 months before signing day.

At this point in the process, Iowa's other top targets in the class of 2025 are clear. None have committed elsewhere or even announced their top schools. Iowa's top targets just aren't moving as quickly as they did in the 2022 class.

Stuelke, Meyer, and Levin's examples offer important context for the class of 2026 and star recruit Maddyn Greenway in particular.

In a now famous (among fans of Iowa women’s basketball) interview with Gopherhole.com in September of 2021 Greenway was asked if it would mean something for her to play for her home state school (Minnesota). Greenway said, “It would be cool, but I really want to go to Iowa.”

Based on Greenway’s answer, fans assumed that Iowa was a heavy favorite to land her commitment. Some assume it might even come soon after she was offered. Greenway received an offer from Iowa on June 21, 2022, but as of now has not committed to Iowa. She has received multiple offers from top schools since then, and has also gone on visits to Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

We are still more than 26 months from Signing Day for the class of 2026. In the past 10 years, only Stuelke and Meyer committed to Iowa further from Signing Day.

Nothing in recruiting is certain. Just because Greenway said she wanted to go to Iowa two years ago doesn’t mean she still feels the same now. But a Greenway commitment before now would’ve been an extreme outlier. Most recruits want to explore their options a bit even if they have a good idea where they will end up.

One dream college coaches have is to land commitments from all of their top targets as early in the process as possible. If achieved, that dream would allow them to secure the best class possible while also allowing them to shift resources to future classes while most other teams are still focused on the prior class.

Iowa's Class of 2022 was as close to achieving that dream as Iowa will likely get. Hannah Stuelke was the first commitment to the class two and a half years before Signing Day. Fellow in-state recruit Jada Gyamfi joined her, committing 16 months before Signing Day.

When Gyamfi committed, Iowa communicated to its remaining targets that it only intended to sign one more player in the class. That prompted Taylor McCabe to commit to Iowa shortly after, and Iowa had its class finished 15 months before Signing Day.

Iowa’s three commitments that occurred two-plus years before Signing Day were Stuelke (class of 2022), Makenzie Meyer (class of 2016) and Callie Levin (class of 2024). Stuelke committed furthest from Signing Day at 30 months. Levin and Meyer committed 27 months and 26 months before Signing Day respectively.

Levin, Stuelke, and Meyer were all in-state recruits that either lived close to Iowa City or had family connections to the University. That is probably not a coincidence. Two years or more from Signing Day, the recruiting process hasn’t fully developed. Schools are still evaluating players, and most recruits are still taking visits to evaluate their options. If a player commits that early, they likely have some connection to the school that meant they were always likely to sign there so long as they got an offer.

In 8 of Iowa’s 10 classes in the sample, Iowa had at least one commitment approximately one year before Signing Day. 2018 is one of the classes that didn’t. Monika Czinano was Iowa’s first commitment in that class, and she pledged to Iowa 10 months before Signing Day.

Iowa’s class of 2023 was the clear outlier of the group. Ava Jones and Kennise Johnson both committed to Iowa approximately 4 months before Signing Day. They were the only signings in that class.

Two of Iowa’s top targets in that class were in-state recruits Audi Crooks and Sahara Williams. Crooks ultimately committed to Iowa State and Williams committed to Oklahoma, forcing Iowa to pivot to different targets.

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