Northwestern entered Saturday’s game against Iowa at 10-39 overall. Yet despite that terrible record, Saturday’s game against the Wildcats was arguably the biggest of the season thus far.

Coming into the weekend series, Iowa was in great shape to make its third NCAA Tournament in the last 9 seasons. All the Hawks had to do was sweep the lowly Wildcats and they would be a virtual lock to make the Tournament as an at-large team.

But Iowa didn’t take care of business. After defeating Northwestern 15-3 on Thursday, the Hawks fell 6-4 on Friday night. Iowa’s RPI took a hit, falling to 34th overall.

With a win Saturday, Iowa would still be in good shape to make the Tournament. With a loss, though, the Hawks would be trending dangerously close to the Bubble that has been so unfriendly to them in the past decade.

At times this year, Brody Brecht has looked like one of the best pitchers in college baseball. Other times, his control has forced an early call to the bullpen. Which version of Brecht would Iowa get in its big game against Northwestern?

Pitch Count: 79

Balls: 29

Strikes: 50

Contact Strikes: 19

Strikes Looking: 15

Swings and Misses: 16

First Pitch Strikes: 15/20

Batters that Took a First Strike: 9/19—one batter walked on 4 pitches

First Time Through Order: 1-9, 5 Ks, 0 BBs, 1H (single), 0 ER—8/9 first pitch strikes

Second Time Through Order: 0-9, 4 Ks, 0 BBs, 0 H, 0 ER—6/9 first pitch strikes

Third Time Through Order: 0-1, 0 Ks, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 ER—1/2 first pitch strikes

vs Lefties: 1-4, 1 K, 1 BB, single

vs. Righties: 0-15, 8 Ks, 0 BB

Results with First Pitch Strike: 1-15, 8 Ks, 0 BB, single

Results with First Pitch Ball: 0-4, 1 K, 1 BB

The first pitch of an at-bat is by far the biggest for Brecht. It’s also an area where he has struggled for much of the Big Ten season. Here are the first pitch strike numbers he recorded in 5 of his Big Ten starts:

13/24 (54%)- Michigan State

6/16 (37.5%)- Ohio State

3/8 (37.5%)- Penn State

11/21 (52%)- Nebraska

15/26 (58%)- Indiana

Even in Brecht’s best start against Indiana he only got a first pitch strike in 58% of at-bats. Today, he blew that number out of the water, getting first pitch strikes to 75% of the batters he faced.

And Northwestern didn’t make it easy on him early. The Wildcats’ first three batters —and four of the first six — took the first strikes they saw. It was only in the game’s middle innings when the Wildcats became more swing-happy.

If Brecht can replicate this success with first pitch strikes moving forward, which is attainable, he’s going to be dominate more (and better) teams.

Unlike many past starts, Brecht seemed to make a concerted effort to attack batters early today, daring them to hit his strikes instead of trying to throw a perfect pitch on the corner.

Brecht is extremely good at limiting quality contact, giving up just 9 extra-base hits to 394 career batters faced (2.3%). If he continues to attack the zone early and trust his stuff, good things will happen much of the time.

Northwestern leadoff man Tony Livermore is the only Wildcat to reach base against Brecht, singling in the 1st and walking in the 6th — and he was also the only member of the lineup to avoid striking out to Iowa's fireballer. Northwestern’s 2-9 hitters went an inadvisable 0-17 against Brecht with 9 Ks.

Northwestern's hardly Murderer's Row, but with some real stakes to today's start, it was great to see Brecht respond with one of the best outings of his college career — and a blueprint for future successful starts.

Every start for the rest of the season will be a big game for Brecht, and against tougher foes. Presumably, he will get a start in the Big Ten Tournament, and will likely pitch in some capacity if Iowa makes the NCAA Tournament. If Brecht can respond to the pressure of those moments like he did today, he could help lead Iowa to one of the best seasons in program history.

Brecht was pulled after 6 innings today with only 79 pitches thrown. Iowa was also only leading 3-0 at the time (the Hawks ultimately won 10-0), so the timing of the hook was somewhat curious. Brecht likely had one, perhaps even two good innings left, and had dominated everyone he was likely to face in the 7th or 8th.

The reason Coach Heller went to the bullpen after 6 was likely due to the Big Ten Tournament; Iowa’s first game will likely be on Tuesday. The Hawks would then play Wednesday with a loss or Thursday with a win.

Marcus Morgan will likely get Tuesday’s start, but Brecht could be in line to start the second game. He was Iowa’s ace for much of the season, before being demoted to the #3 starter in his past 2 starts due to his control struggles.

Now that Brecht has recorded 2 bounce-back starts in a row, though, Coach Heller might choose to bump him up in the rotation again.