WHEN: Sunday, March 12th at 7 PM CT

TV: ESPN

For a second consecutive season Iowa is one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament. On the final day of the regular season, Iowa beat #2 Indiana 86-85 on a last-second three from Caitlin Clark. Iowa then beat Purdue in a competitive Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal, before beating 3 seed Maryland 89-84 in one of the best games played this season. And Iowa saved its best for last, dismantling Ohio State 105-72 in a game the Hawks led by 37 at halftime.

After a week to rest and recharge, the Hawks will learn who they will face in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night. Let’s dig in to see who that might be.

In most years, we have a very good idea who the #1 seeds will be in the women’s NCAA Tournament. That’s not necessarily true this year.

We do know that South Carolina will be the #1 overall seed. The Gamecocks are undefeated this year and look a step above everyone else.

Indiana will almost certainly be the #2 overall seed. The Hoosiers fell behind Iowa in the latest AP Poll, but they still have a better resume overall than Iowa with three fewer losses.

We also know that Iowa will be a 1 seed or a 2 seed. Bracketologists are unanimous on that point. Because of that, Iowa will host the first two rounds of the Tournament. First round games will either be on Friday, March 17 or Saturday, March 18. The second round game will be on Sunday, March 19 or Monday, March 20.

Last year, Iowa’s second round game against Creighton ended up on ABC in an early Sunday afternoon timeslot. The Hawks and South Carolina were the two teams prominently featured in the TV coverage. With the way the season has gone, Iowa and South Carolina are likely to be the two big feature teams again this year. Nothing is certain of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Iowa get a Friday-Sunday schedule with the Sunday game being on ABC again if Iowa wins in the first round.

In the selection committee’s second Top 16 reveal on February 23rd, Iowa was the 9th overall seed. No team behind the Hawks has done enough to jump into the top 8. Let’s take a look at how teams 3-9 were ranked then and what those teams have done since. For these results, I will use the current AP Poll to show any ranked wins/losses.

#3 Stanford: at #20 Colorado -- W: 73-62 (2OT); at #8 Utah -- L: 84-78; Pac 12 Tournament vs. Oregon -- W: 76-65; Pac 12 Tournament vs. #17 UCLA -- L: 69-65

#4 Utah: vs. California -- W: 101-76; vs. #5 Stanford -- W: 84-78; Pac 12 Tournament vs. #22 Washington State -- L: 66-58

#5 LSU: at Vanderbilt -- W: 82-63; vs. Mississippi State -- W: 74-59; SEC Tournament vs. Georgia -- W: 83-66; SEC Tournament vs. #23 Tennessee -- L: 69-67

#6 Maryland: at #12 Ohio State -- W: 76-74; Big Ten Tournament vs. Illinois -- W: 73-58; Big Ten Tournament vs. #2 Iowa -- L: 89-84

#7 UConn: at DePaul -- W: 72-69; vs. Xavier- W: 60-51; Big East Tournament vs. Georgetown -- W: 69-39; Big East Tournament vs. Marquette -- W: 81-52; Big East Tournament vs. #10 Villanova -- W: 67-56

#8 Virginia Tech: at #19 North Carolina -- W: 61-59; at Georgia Tech -- W: 62-52; ACC Tournament vs. Miami -- W: 68-42; ACC Tournament vs. #13 Duke -- W: 58-37; ACC Tournament vs. Louisville -- W: 75-67

#9 Iowa: vs. #3 Indiana -- W: 86-85; BTT vs. Purdue -- W: 69-58; BTT vs. #6 Maryland -- W: 89-84; BTT vs. #12 Ohio State -- W: 105-72

Iowa pretty clearly had the best end to the season of any of these teams. The Hawks amassed three top 12 wins in the last eight days of the season. Utah and Maryland were the only other teams to get a top 12 win in that time and each only got top 12 win.

Also of note, Iowa won’t be matched in a region with Indiana or Maryland. As such, the 1 to Iowa’s 2 or the 2 to Iowa’s 1 will almost certainly be one of UConn, Stanford, Virginia Tech, or Utah.

I think LSU was the big loser since the committee’s last reveal. The Tigers are 28-2 on the season, but have only played three games against ranked opponents (South Carolina and two games against Tennessee). They are 1-2 in those games. Given how poor LSU’s schedule was and because the Tigers didn’t reach the SEC Championship game, I think the they are the most likely team from this group to fall to a 3 seed.

UConn is the elephant in the room. The Huskies have played with significant injuries throughout the season, and as a result have some bad losses on their resume. But they have also beaten some very good games. And now they appear to be as healthy as they have been all season with the return of Azzi Fudd. When healthy, UConn might well be the second most talented team in the country.

The availability of players is a consideration for the selection committee, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see UConn back as a 1 seed despite its losses. If the Huskies ends up a 2 seed, the 1 seed in its regional will certainly not be happy with the committee.

AP voters and bracketologists were quick to knock Utah down several slots after losing to Washington State. Basically no one now thinks that Utah has any chance at a 1 seed. Stanford, meanwhile, is still being projected as a 1 by some Bracketologists and only fell to #5 in the AP poll.

The strange part of all that to me is that Utah pretty clearly had a better end to the season than Stanford did. I think Stanford’s resume was better as of February 23rd, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinal end up a little further down in seeding than some bracketologists expect.

Virginia Tech is the other really hot team entering the tournament. The Hokies have won 11 straight games and because of that run, ESPN and many other bracketologists have the Hokies ahead of Iowa in their projections.

To me, that has been the most surprising part of this process. When the February 23 reveal was made, many were surprised to see Virginia Tech ahead of Iowa. It seemed like teams 4-9 were all very close in terms of resumes.

Since that reveal, Iowa has added far more to its resume than Virginia Tech has. Both won their conference tournaments, but Iowa beat #3 Indiana, #6 Maryland, and its win over #12 Ohio State is comparable to Virginia Tech’s win over #13 Duke. The only way to have Virginia Tech over Iowa now is if you believe Virginia Tech’s resume was significantly better than Iowa’s on February 23rd. I don’t think it was. Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten a Top 12 team all season. The Hokies' best wins are over #13 Duke twice and #19 North Carolina twice. Iowa has five Top 12 wins.

Here are the 3 seeds, 4 seeds, and 5 seeds in ESPN’s latest Bracketology:

3 seeds: Duke, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State

4 seeds: North Carolina, UCLA, Villanova, Texas

5 seeds: Louisville, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Colorado

Barring an upset, Iowa will likely play one of these teams in the Sweet Sixteen if the Hawkeyes advance that far. The only team on the list that Iowa won’t be matched with for a potential Sweet Sixteen game is Ohio State. Otherwise, everyone else is fair game.

Notre Dame is probably the most interesting team on this list. When healthy, the Irish were a very good team that might have pushed for a 2 seed with a good run in the ACC Tournament. Unfortunately for the Irish, they aren’t healthy. They already lost starter Dara Mabrey for the rest of the season, then saw star guard Olivia Miles go down in their first ACC Tournament game. Without her, the Irish lost to unranked Louisville 64-38 in the semifinal game.

Miles’ status for the NCAA Tournament is an open question at this point. If she is healthy enough to play, the Irish are a big threat. Without her, the Irish will be at a huge disadvantage and could be a great potential matchup for a 1 or 2 seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

Finally, the second weekend tournament games are all taking place in either Seattle, Washington or Greensboro, North Carolina. If Iowa ends up in a Seattle regional, the potential Sweet Sixteen game shouldn’t be an issue. None of the 3-5 seeds are particularly close to Seattle.

Greensboro is very close to the campuses for both Duke and North Carolina, though. If Iowa ends up in the same regional as Duke or North Carolina, then the Hwakeyes might be playing what is essentially a road game in the Sweet Sixteen if both teams advance.

The other first round game in Iowa City will be a 7/10 or 8/9 matchup. Here are the teams ESPN has projected in the 6-11 seeds:

6 seeds: Washington State, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa State

7 seeds: Creighton, South Florida, NC State, Florida State

8 seeds: Oklahoma State, USC, Ole Miss, Baylor

9 seeds: Gonzaga, Miami, Illinois, Georgia

10 seeds: South Dakota State, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, Alabama

11 seeds: Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast, Purdue/St. Johns, Marquette/Kansas

Michigan, Iowa State, NC State, Illinois, and Purdue won’t be in Iowa City to avoid a conference matchup or rematch from earlier in the season. Otherwise, the other teams are all fair game.

Last year, the selection committee seemed to take geography into account when placing teams into different locations. Colorado, Creighton, and Illinois State were all fairly close to Iowa geographically. If the selection committee does the same this year, Creighton, South Dakota State, and Marquette stand out as teams relatively close to Iowa that could actually be in Iowa’s part of the bracket.

Having a week between most major conference tournaments and Selection Sunday is good for teams to rest and recharge. As fans, though, it leads to a lot of time for speculation without much new information. I for one will be glad when the brackets are announced and we can dig into Iowa’s matchups rather than worrying about who Iowa might face or whether Iowa will be a 1 seed or a 2 seed.

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