Published Feb 14, 2024
Preview: Iowa MBB at Maryland
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Maryland Terrapins (13-11, 5-8 Big Ten)
WHEN: 7:30 PM CT (Wednesday, February 14, 2024)
WHERE: XFINITY Center (College Park, MD)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Maryland -5.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Maryland -3 (Maryland 74, Iowa 71; Maryland 61% chance of winning)

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When Iowa and Maryland met around three weeks ago in Iowa City, the Terps used a strong second half -- and an especially strong finish -- to upset the Hawkeyes. Maryland ended the game on a 12-4 run, with eight points from Jahmir Young in the final 86 seconds, including the game-winner with just 1.5 seconds to go.

The way Iowa lost that game has become an unwelcome trend for the Hawkeyes in recent weeks -- the Hawkeye offense also sputtered late in losses to Purdue, Indiana, and Penn State. Iowa at least temporarily broke that trend with a furious comeback win against Minnesota on Sunday, rallying from 20 points down to earn a 90-85 win over the Gophers.

Maryland enters this game with plenty of problems of their own. After beating Iowa and Nebraska in consecutive games to get to 5-5 in Big Ten play, the Terps have lost three in a row entering tonight's game. That losing skid includes a loss at Michigan State (understandable), as well as a home loss to Rutgers and a 2OT road loss at Ohio State (much less understandable).

PROJECTED MARYLAND STARTING FIVE

G Jahmir Young (6'1", 185, 20.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.4 spg, 41.4 FG%, 36.1 3FG%)
G DeShawn Harris-Smith (6'5", 215, 6.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 34.2 FG%, 16.7 3FG%)
F Mady Traore (6'11", 195, 1.5 ppg, 1.3 ppg, 0.1 apg, 40.0 FG%) OR
F Jordan Geronimo (6'6", 225, 5.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.5 apg, 43.4 FG%, 15.8 3FG%)
F Donta Scott (6'8", 230, 11.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 41.0 FG%, 34.5 3FG%)
C Julian Reese (6'9", 230, 13.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.1 bpg, 50.9 FG%, 0 3FG%)

The strength of this Terps team when they played Iowa in January was defense and the defense has actually gotten even better for the Terps since then, at least statistically. Maryland ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in effective FG% defense (45.4%). Most of that strength comes from their ability to contest 2-point shots; opponents are shooting just 43.8% (8th nationally) against Maryland and Terps rank 34th in block rate (12.7%).

Maryland also generates a lot of turnovers on defense -- the Terps rank 58th in turnover rate (19.5%), including 112th in steal rate (10.2%) and 45th in non-steal turnovers (9.3%). Iowa, of course, is one of the nation's best teams at avoiding turnovers on offense; the Hawkeyes rank 11th in turnover rate on offense and have given the ball away on just 13.6% of possessions this season. Turnovers were a bit of a wash in the first game between Iowa and Maryland; both teams turned the ball over 14 times and Iowa scored 11 points off turnovers while Maryland had 10 points off turnovers.

Maryland's offense ranks second to last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency and is just 187th nationally. The Terps have really struggled to score the ball; they rank 315th in eFG% (46.4), 338th in 3-point FG% (29.1), and 266th in 2-point FG% (48.1). During their current 3-game losing streak, the Terps are averaging just 56 ppg in regulation.

They key player for Maryland offensively is still Jahmir Young, who Iowa fans should remember well, given his late game heroics in the Terps' win three weeks ago. Young is averaging 20.9 ppg and 5.0 rpg, as well as a team-high 4.0 apg. He's only shooting 45% inside the arc, but his 36.1% from deep is the best on the team.

Forward Donta Scott is team's second-best outside shooter, averaging 34.5% from beyond the arc. He had 14 points, two rebounds, and two assists in Maryland's win over Iowa earlier in the season. Big man Julian Reese is the other player to know for the Terps; he's averaging a double-double with 13.3 ppg and 10.0 rpg and he also had a very strong performance against Iowa in the previous game, with 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting, as well as nine rebounds and five blocks.

The two biggest questions for this game: will Maryland stay cold from the field and will Iowa be able to finish strong? Maryland shot just 17-of-55 (31%) from the floor (including 7-of-30 from 3-point range) against Michigan State in the game that started the Terps' current losing streak. They were equally cold against Rutgers: 17-of-54 (31%) from the floor and 2-of-18 (11%) from deep. The shooting thawed a little against Ohio State -- 24-of-62 (39%) overall and 7-of-17 (41%) from long range.

Iowa's defense has been good for what ails many teams this season and even with Maryland's offensive struggles of late, the Hawkeyes will need to bring a lot of focus and energy to the defensive side of the ball. They don't want to be Maryland's slumpbusters. To do that, Iowa will need Owen Freeman to stay out of foul trouble and lead Iowa's interior defense. The guards also need to slow down Young's dribble penetration as much as possible; the more Iowa can force Maryland to be a jump-shooting team, the better their odds of victory will be.

Iowa used a very balanced scoring attack to earn the comeback victory over Minnesota on Sunday; four Iowa players scored at least 17 points in that game and a similarly balanced effort would be very useful against Maryland. But if nothing else, Iowa needs to be sharper from long range in this game than they were in the prior meeting; the Hawkeyes were just 3-of-14 (21%) from 3-point range in that game. Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix were a combined 2-of-8 from deep; sharper shooting will be needed for Iowa to claim a third road victory and improve to 7-7 in Big Ten play.