WHO: Maryland Terrapins (11-8, 3-5 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Wednesday, January 24, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -5.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -5 (Iowa 78, Maryland 73; Iowa 70% chance of winning)
Iowa enters this mid-week game off an 84-70 loss to Purdue on Saturday, but this game against Maryland is also the end of a stretch of a friendly stretch of the schedule. This game will be Iowa's fourth home game in five games, with the lone road trip being a short jaunt to Minnesota.
On paper, this stretch of games -- home to Rutgers and Nebraska, away to Minnesota, back home to Purdue and Maryland -- looked like a prime opportunity for Iowa to reset after an 0-3 start to Big Ten play. Indeed, that's how it's worked out in practice too -- Iowa picked up home wins over Rutgers and Maryland as well as a road win over Minnesota that got them to 3-3 in league play. A win over Maryland tonight would give Iowa a very respectable 4-1 record over this five-game span.
Maryland enters this game with a similar record to Iowa (11-8 versus 11-7, 3-5 in the Big Ten versus 3-4) and on a two-game losing streak. Despite that unimpressive overall record, the Terps have been feisty this season, especially in recent weeks. One of Maryland's three Big Ten wins was against then-#10 Illinois -- in Champaign, no less.
The Terrapins followed up that big win with a pair of losses, but both losses were nail-biters -- a 72-69 road loss at Northwestern a week ago and a 61-59 home loss to Michigan State on Sunday. If the Maryland team that beat Illinois or gave Michigan State a tight battle takes the floor tonight, Iowa will need to be at its best to get a win.
PROJECTED MARYLAND STARTING FIVE
G Jahmir Young (6'1", 185, 20.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 43.5 FG%, 33.7 3FG%)
G DeShawn Harris-Smith (6'5", 215, 7.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 33.6 FG%, 15.4 3FG%)
F Jordan Geronimo (6'6", 225, 6.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 0.6 apg, 45.2 FG%, 15.6 3FG%)
F Donta Scott (6'8", 230, 11.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, 43.2 FG%, 39.0 3FG%)
C Julian Reese (6'9", 230, 13.4 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 2.2 bpg, 51.5 FG%, 0 3FG%)
The strength of this Maryland team is unquestionably its defense -- the Terrapins rank 17th in defensive efficiency this season (3rd in the Big Ten), but just 171st in offensive efficiency (13th in the Big Ten). Maryland also plays at the fourth-slowest tempo in the Big Ten (only Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Ohio State are slower). The Terps want to slow the game down and make each possession a bit of a slog, especially on defense (Maryland opponents are holding onto the ball for an average of 18.1 seconds per possession, 334th nationally).
Maryland isn't great at keeping opponents off the offensive glass (231st nationally) or avoiding fouls (175th), but they are good at forcing turnovers (73rd) and excellent at contesting shots (45.2 effective FG% for opponents, 17th nationally). Maryland ranks second in the Big Ten in blocks at 5.3 per game. Big man Julian Reese is the leading shotblocker, averaging 2.2 swats per game, although Jordan Geronimo adds 1.2 blocks per game as well.
Overall, Maryland is holding opponents to 43% shooting on 2-point shots this season, which ranks 7th nationally. Making shots around the rim has been tough sledding for opponents this season. Opponents have had better luck making thee-pointers (33.8%, 191st), but Maryland has done a good job of denying three-point attempts; they rank 13th in three-point rate on defense.
On offense, Maryland's strength is getting to the free throw line (14th in free throw rate), though they aren't a great free throw-shooting team (just 70.5%, 220th). The Terps are also good at rebounding their own misses; they haul in 33.7% of offensive rebounding opportunities, 54th nationally.
But the Terrapins also turn the ball over a fair amount (213th nationally) and are a bad shooting team. Maryland ranks 290th in effective FG% (47.1%), and they're especially bad from deep (28.3% on 3-point tries, 341st). The Terrapins are shooting 50% (191st) on 2-point attempts.
The offensive engine for Maryland is senior guard Jahmir Young, who averages 20.7 ppg, which ranks 3rd in the Big Ten. Young is shooting 49% from the floor on 2-point attempts and is also the team's best free throw shooter (89.8% on 118 attempts). He's one of the only capable 3-point shooters on the team as well, going 33-of-98 (33.7%) so far this season. He had 28 points in Maryland's upset win over Illinois and 37 in the Terrapins' loss at Northwestern.
Forward Donta Scott is Maryland's only other good 3-point shooter; he's averaging 11.0 ppg this season and shooting 32-of-82 (39%) from long range. Scott is shooting 47.5% on 2-point attempts and averaging 4.9 rebounds per game.
Big Julian Reese is the only other Maryland player scoring in double figures, with 13.4 points per game. Reese is no stretch big -- he hasn't attempted a three-pointer all season and sticks around the paint, where he's shooting 51.5%. Reese is also the team's top rebounder, pulling in 9.8 boards per game, 2nd best in the Big Ten.
This game is all about defending home court for Iowa. The Hawkeyes have already lost two Big Ten home games this season -- against Michigan in December and against Purdue last weekend. The Purdue loss was eminently understandable, but the Michigan loss has aged as well as a glass of milk left out in the sun -- the Wolverines are 7-12 overall and just 2-6 in the Big Ten.
Only five of Iowa's remaining 12 games after tonight are at home. The Big Ten isn't as strong top to bottom this season as it's been in recent years, but winning on the road in the league is still difficult, so Iowa likely needs to protect its home court as much as possible.
The Terrapins are a talented, but beatable team -- if Iowa can get the Terps sped up and create more transition opportunities, they can get the game played at a style they prefer. Given Maryland's defensive prowess around the rim, this is also a game where Iowa's jump shots will need to be falling. If that happens, then Iowa will have a very good shot to move into a tie for sixth in the Big Ten after tonight's game.
