WHO: #12 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-8, 13-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Sunday, March 10)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Illinois -1.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Illinois -3 (ILL 90, Iowa 87; ILL 60% of winning)
A late season surge -- four wins in five games -- has dramatically boosted the odds of Iowa making it back to the NCAA Tournament for what would effectively be a sixth straight season (the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but Iowa was in strong position to earn at-large bid until that season was prematurely ended). There's still work to do, though, as the Hawkeyes still sit on the wrong side of the bubble -- just 10 brackets in the Bracket Project's 2024 Bracket Matrix include Iowa as of this morning. Most bracketologists have Iowa among the "First Four Out" teams at present.
That makes the stakes for Sunday's regular season finale against #12 Illinois pretty clear: a win over a team of Illinois' caliber would likely move Iowa to the right side of the bubble entering championship week. It's not as simple as "win and in" because a quick flameout at the Big Ten Tournament this coming week could burst Iowa's bubble.
A loss to the Illini would significantly reduce Iowa's available paths to the NCAA Tournament -- the Hawkeyes would need a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, if not a win in the event itself. A run though the Big Ten Tournament could involve another game against Illinois, and if a return trip to the NCAA Tournament involves beating Illinois, there isn't likely to be a better opportunity to do so than this game. Iowa has the benefit of home court and a sellout crowd, as well as over a week's worth of rest since last playing (an 87-80 win over Northwestern last Saturday).
PROJECTED ILLINOIS STARTING FIVE
G Marcus Domask (6'6", 215, 16.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.5 apg, 46.6 FG%, 34.8 3FG%)
G Terrence Shannon (6'6", 225, 21.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 46.6 FG%, 28.6 3FG%)
F Ty Rodgers (6'6", 200, 6.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 54.1 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
F Quincy Guerrier (6'8", 220, 10.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.3 apg, 48.6 FG%, 37.9 3FG%)
C Coleman Hawkins (6'10", 225, 13.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 46.3 FG%, 39.5 3FG%)
The only Iowa loss in that recent stretch of four wins in five games? A February 24th meeting in Champaign that the Illini won 95-85. That Illinois game should probably be known as The Coleman Hawkins Game; the Illini's 6'11" senior big man roasted Iowa for a career-high 30 points in that game.
Hawkins was effective from long range (3-of-5 from deep) in that game, but he was also perfect inside the arc (6-for-6) and lethal at the free throw line (9-of-11). Iowa had no defensive answers for Hawkins in that game; his shooting range forced Iowa's bigs to come out to the perimeter more often, but his quickness often enabled him to blow past them as well.
Hawkins hasn't hit the same heights in the games since that first meeting with Iowa -- he's averaged 15.3 ppg in the three games since -- but the matchup hasn't gotten any better for Iowa in the last two weeks, either. Given how much Ben Krikke struggled to slow down Hawkins in Champaign, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele should see more time defending Hawkins in this game, though they'll need to stay out of foul trouble as well.
Outside of Hawkins, Illinois had a fairly balanced scoring attack against Iowa in the first game -- five players scored between 8 and 12 points against Iowa, led by Terrence Shannon and Justin Harmon with 12 apiece. While Shannon was relatively quiet against Iowa in the first encounter (and had just 11 points in Illinois' last game, a 77-70 loss to Purdue), he's very capable of erupting for a big game -- he's scored 23 or more in six of his last eight games.
Marcus Domask had just eight points in the first Iowa-Illinois game (on 2-of-9 shooting), but that game seems like an aberration -- Domask has scored in double figures in every other Big Ten game this season. There's a reason he's Illinois' second-leading scorer this season, after all. He's been particularly good recently, averaging 24.3 ppg in Illinois' last three games. He's done a lot of that damage inside the arc as well, shooting 23-of-39 (59%) on 2-point field goals during that stretch.
Hawkins (39.5%) and Shannon (34.8%) remain Illinois' biggest three-point threats, along with Quincy Guerrier (37.9%, albeit on only 95 attempts). Backup Luke Goode has shot 39.1% from deep this season and attempted 128 triples (second-most on the team), but his playing time has dipped considerably of late -- he's played more than 10 minutes in just two of Illinois' last six games.
In the first meeting between these teams, Iowa had a seven-point lead over Illinois with 12:15 remaining. Then Iowa's familiar second half slump hit. Illinois went on a 10-2 run over the next few minutes and never really looked back. Second half scoring droughts and an inability to match or slow opponent runs have been a common failing in several of Iowa's losses this season.
Iowa has been better in that category of late, though, particularly against Northwestern last weekend. The Hawkeyes answered every Northwestern push with one of their own. That ought to give the Iowa players some confidence that they can do the same if pushed by the Illini in this game.
The Hawkeyes also need the strong recent form of Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix to continue. Sandfort has scored 22+ in three of Iowa's last four games and averaged 24 ppg in Iowa's recent wins over Penn State and Northwestern. Dix has scored 20+ in three straight games, including a career-high 24 in the win over Northwestern.
Of course, Iowa's also going to need big outings from several other players as well to get a win over the Illini. Illinois has the second-most efficient offense in the Big Ten (and fourth-most efficient in the nation), so odds are they're going to score. The Illini also play at the third-fastest tempo in the Big Ten; barring some unusually cold shooting from one or borh teams, this game ought to resemble the fast-paced, high-scoring game Illinois won two weeks ago.
To prevent a season sweep from the Illini, Iowa's going to need to do a better job on the glass (especially defensively; Illinois is a very strong offensive rebounding team, but Iowa can ill-afford to give them too many second chance opportunities) and show an improved ability to get stops on defense, especially in the second half. If the Hawkeyes can go punch for counter-punch against the Illini, though, and execute better down the stretch, then they might just be able to get themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble by the end of the night.
