WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (4-4, 2-3 Big Ten)
WHEN: 2:30 PM CT (Saturday, November 4, 2023)
WHERE: Wrigley Stadium (Chicago, IL)
TV: Peacock ($; Paul Burmeister, Kyle Rudolph, Zora Stephenson)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 387
MOBILE: Peacock ($)
ONLINE: Peacock ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: temps in the 50s, partly cloudy
LINE: Iowa -5 (total of 31.5)

Bye weeks are usually a quiet week during the college football season, a chance for players and coaches (and fans) to catch their breath, recover, and get ready for the remainder of the season. The bye week itself was fairly quiet for Iowa, but it set up the domino that came crashing down this week: the Brian Ferentz Era at Iowa is over (or soon will be).

Amid all of the discussion about new offensive coordinators and Kirk Ferentz's future in Iowa City, though, there's also the little matter of the remainder of the 2023 season. Iowa still has four games to play this season and still (essentially) controls its own destiny to make the Big Ten Championship Game a month from now.

First among those four games? A neutral site game against longtime nemesis Northwestern at Wrigley Field. The Wildcats were expected to be a dead team walking after a tumultuous offseason that saw longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald fired. Instead, Northwestern has clawed their way to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Big Ten.

There are a few red flags among that 4-4 overall record, though. Northwestern has alternated wins and losses all season and three of the four wins have been by six points or fewer, including a pair of three-point wins over Minnesota and Howard. Meanwhile, three of Northwestern's four losses have been by at least 17 points, though the most recent loss (at Nebraska) was by just eight points.

Five different players have thrown passes for Northwestern this season, though Ben Bryant and Brendan Sullivan have been the most-used quarterbacks this season. Sullivan saw limited action early in the season, but has been Northwestern's primary quarterback the last three games.

Sullivan is 51/80 (63.8%) for 633 yards on the season, with five touchdown passes and two interceptions. Sullivan is also a threat with his legs -- he has almost 250 yards (not counting lost yards due to sacks) on the ground, plus two touchdowns. Sullivan will not be a new entity for the Iowa defense, though -- the Hawkeyes faced him in last year's Iowa-Northwestern game (a 33-13 Iowa win) and while he completed over 75% of his passes (23/30), he finished with just 159 yards of passing and two touchdown, plus an interception.

He actually ranks second on the team in rushing yards, behind senior running back Cam Porter, who has 346 yards and two touchdowns on 93 carries (3.7 yards per carry). Running the ball has not been a strength of the Northwestern offense this season -- the Wildcats rank last in the conference in rushing yards (798) and yards per carry (2.88). This season hasn't featured Iowa's stingiest run defense -- Iowa ranks 8th in the Big Ten in that category -- but it could have a lot of success against Northwestern's pedestrian running game.

Senior wide receiver Bryce Kirtz leads the team in receiving yards (474) and receiving touchdowns (4). Senior wide receiver Cam Johnson leads the team in receptions (31) and is second on the team in receiving yards (385). Senior receiver A.J. Henning also has 25 receptions for 201 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

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Northwestern ranks 10th in the Big Ten in total defense, allowing 351.4 yards per game this season, and 9th in yards per play allowed (5.32). The Wildcats are also 10th in scoring defense, allowing 26.0 ppg. Three opponents have scored 34+ against the Wildcats, although the defense has also held two of its last three opponents to 20 points or fewer.

The Wildcats have struggled the most against the run this season, ranking 13th in the Big Ten and allowing 164.3 yards per game. Northwestern has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, 2nd-worst in the conference. The 16 rushing touchdowns allowed is the most in the Big Ten as well.

The low point for Northwestern's run defense came earlier in the season, allowing 268 and 244 rushing yards to Duke and Minnesota in back-to-back games. The Wildcats have still allowed over 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games, with Howard and Nebraska averaging over 160 yards per game on the ground. This game could be a get-right game for the Iowa run game.

Northwestern has a +3 turnover margin on the season, although that figure is not the result of a turnover-creating defense -- the Wildcats' nine turnovers gained is the second-fewest in the Big Ten this season. Northwestern has forced six interceptions this year and recovered three fumbles.

Senior linebacker Bryce Gallagher leads Northwestern in tackles with 70. Senior linebacker Xander Mueller leads the team with 8.0 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, though junior defensive end Aidan Hubbard is coming off a sensational game against Maryland, in which he had three sacks and won Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Sophomore defensive back Devin Turner leads the team with four pass break-ups. The Wildcats' six interceptions have been recorded by six different players this season.

If Saturday's game turns into a kicking contest, Northwestern looks well-equipped to keep up with Iowa. Senior placekicker Jack Olsen has made 11 of 12 field goal attempts this season and leads the Big Ten in field goal percentage (91.7%). Olsen's only miss came on a 50+ yard kick.

The Wildcats' strength in the kicking game doesn't extend to punting, though. Senior Northwestern punter Hunter Renner is last in the conference, averaging just 38.4 yards per punt this season. Perhaps because of those short punts, though, the Wildcats have not allowed opponents to gain much in the punt return game -- the Wildcats have allowed just seven return yards on seven kicks this season. Still, Iowa has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten at punt returns this season -- even against teams that have not allowed many punt return yards against other opponents.

Does anyone know what to expect from Iowa in this game? Iowa takes the field for the first time since suffering a gut punch loss against Minnesota -- and since a tumultuous off-field week that brought an end to the Drive for 325 and Brian Ferentz's tenure at Iowa (though he'll still be on the sideline calling plays on Saturday).

Has a bye week fixed any of the blues ailing the Iowa offense? The good news is that aside from the long-term injuries to Cade McNamara, Luke Lachey, and Erick All, the offense should be as healthy as it's been in several weeks. The week off gave several guys a chance to rest, recharge, and recover from several nagging injuries.

So what happens? Iowa grinds out a slugfest of a win behind a big game from Sebastian Castro, who uses the Wrigley Field showcase to show off his impressive form this season, and a few big runs by Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson.

Iowa 17, Northwestern 13