Published Jan 7, 2023
Preview: Iowa vs Rutgers
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-4, 3-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:00 AM CT
WHERE: Jersey Mike's Arena (Piscataway, NJ)
TV: BTN (Wayne Randazzo and Robbie Hummel)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | Sirius/XM 389 or 979
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Rutgers -7
KENPOM: Rutgers -9 (77% chance of winning)

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PROJECTED STARTING FIVE

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (11.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.3 bpg, 40.1 FG%, 31.3 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (5.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.2 bpg, 34.6 FG%, 23.5 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 45.1 FG%, 37.5 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (21.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.1 bpg, 51.5 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.4 bpg, 60.6 FG%, 40 3FG%)

Rutgers
G Cam Spencer (12.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 2.6 spg, 0.1 bpg, 48.5 FG%, 44.3 3FG%)
G Paul Mulcahy (8.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.0 spg, 0.3 bpg, 49.3 FG%, 42.9 3FG%)
G Caleb McConnell (10.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.7 bpg, 41.9 FG%, 27.3 3FG%)
F Mawot Mag (6.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.4 bpg, 44.8 FG%, 19.0 3FG%)
C Clifford Omoruyi (14.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.8 bpg, 50.6% FG, 23.5%)

PREVIEW

Rutgers doesn't just have the best defense in the Big Ten -- the Scarlet Knights have one of the best defenses in the nation this year. They're second in defensive efficiency and holding opponents to just 54.9 ppg (4th nationally). The Scarlet Knights have been especially airtight at home, going 11-1 at Jersey Mike's Arena this season and holding all but one opponent under 60 ppg. In Big Ten play, Rutgers has gone 3-1 so far, suffering a one-point loss at Ohio State, but blasting Indiana (63-48) and Maryland (64-50) at home. They also handed Purdue the Boilermakers' first (and so far only) loss of the season last Monday, edging them 65-64 -- in West Lafayette.

On defense, Rutgers is good at pretty much everything -- they don't foul too much and they don't let opponents get too many offensive rebounds -- but they're especially good at contesting shots and forcing turnovers. The Scarlet Knights have a lot of length -- five of their most frequently-played players are 6'6" or taller -- and they use that length to get in passing lanes and shooting windows. Opponents have an effective FG% of just 42% against them (5th best nationally) and they're making just 25.7% of their 3-point attempts and 44.6% of their 2-point tries against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are also forcing turnovers on almost 15% of opponent possessions (6th best) as well as getting blocks on 13% of opponent possession; they're averaging 10 steals and 4 blocks per game. Three Rutgers players -- Cam Spencer, Caleb McConnell, and Paul Mulcahy -- are averaging more than two steals per game each; they are expert pick-pockets. Rutgers has forced 13 or more turnovers in all three of their Big Ten wins, including 20 (!) against Maryland on Thursday. Iowa has traditionally been a low-turnover offense under Fran McCaffery and that's the case again this season (only 13.9% of offensive possessions have ended in turnovers, 5th best nationally). That's held true in many of their losses, too -- they had 15 giveaways in losses to Clemson and Wisconsin, but they also had single-digit turnover totals in their losses to Duke, Nebraska, and Penn State. The bigger issue in Iowa's recent losses was simply ice-cold shooting and shots not going down -- which Rutgers is also very good at forcing, of course.

Rutgers is not a particularly good offensive team, mainly because the Scarlet Knights not a very good shooting team. They're posting an effective FG% of 49% (222nd) and making just 31.6% of their three-point tries (289th). They do hit the glass well on offense, grabbing an offensive board on around a third of their possessions. The team's leading scorer (and rebounder) is big man Clifford Omoruyi, a 6'11" post who's averaging a double-double per game this year: 14.1 ppg and 10.0 rpg. He's definitely a force down low. 6'3" guard Cam Spencer is averaging 12.9 ppg and is also the team's top outside shooting threat (44.3% on 3FG). Caleb McConnell, a 6'7" senior guard, is also averaging double figures (10.1 ppg), but is not much of a deep threat (just 27.3% from 3-point range). Mulcahy (who you may remember as "headband guy" from last season) averages 8.6 ppg and a team-best 4.3 apg and is their second-best outside shooter (42.9%). Rutgers has also been getting key contributions off the bench from 6'6" forward Aundre Hyatt (10.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and 6'3" guard Derek Simpson (7.4 ppg).

KEY FACTORS

Last year Iowa went into Rutgers -- and had one of the worst offensive games of the Fran McCaffery Era at Iowa. The Hawkeyes managed just 46 points (0.68 points per possession) and shot just 28% from the floor (17/61), including 11/34 (32%) on 2-point tries and 6/27 (22%) on 3-point attempts. (Iowa still only lost that game by 2 points, because Rutgers was also disastrous on offense in that game.) Much-improved shooting is a must for Iowa's chances at a win in this game.

A fast start would also be very helpful -- the Hawkeyes have fallen behind by huge deficits in the first half in their last three Big Ten games. There were rallies (of varying effectiveness) in all three games, but only against Indiana were they able to fully climb out of that early hole and earn a victory. Trying to come back on Rutgers' very stingy defense -- on the road -- sounds like a very difficult proposition.

Iowa got strong performances from Connor McCaffery and Payton Sandfort in the win over Indiana -- they'll need more production from less-expected sources in this game to earn a victory. Maybe it's McCaffery and Sandfort again. Maybe Ahron Ulis or Dasonte Bowen gets on a roll. Maybe Tony Perkins' shot starts dropping. Whatever the case, the supporting cast will need to have some success stories.