Preview: No. 6 Iowa WBB at Minnesota

WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-12 overall, 5-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Wednesday, February 28)
WHERE: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
TV: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
MOBILE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

The complexion of Minnesota’s season completely changed against Illinois on January 28. Up to that point, the Gophers were 14-5 and looked likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Then Minnesota star Mara Braun went down with injury, and the season spiraled downward.

Minnesota lost that game to Illinois, and has gone just 1-6 since, including losses at Rutgers and at home against Wisconsin. Minnesota isn’t listed on ESPN’s Bracketology now, and even a victory over Iowa is unlikely to get them back in the picture.

For Iowa, a loss at Minnesota now would be a huge negative on its NCAA Tournament resume. The Hawks sit as a 2-seed (6th overall) in ESPN's Bracketology. A win-win finish over Minnesota and Ohio State on Sunday would put a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament back in play with a good finish at the Big Ten Tournament. With a loss to Minnesota, though, a 1-seed might not be possible. Iowa could also fall to the 3-seed line depending on other results around the country.

Stats for this preview are from HerHoopStats.

Minnesota was 11-1 and receiving votes in the AP poll when the Hawkeyes and Gophers matched up in Carver on December 30. Minnesota looked like a much better team than last year, and there was some question about whether the Gophers could give Iowa trouble.

They didn't. Iowa took a double-digit lead less than five minutes into the game and held it the rest of the way. Iowa led by 13 points at the end of the first, 18 at halftime, and won by 23.

Defense played a big role in Iowa's easy victory. Gabbie Marshall held Braun to a bad shooting night, and none of Braun's teammates were able to step up. Iowa got plenty of stops and was able to push the ball in transition and get good looks throughout the game.

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Braun was averaging 17.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, and 1.7 spg for Minnesota at the time of her injury. It's not surprising that Minnesota has fallen off after losing her production.

5'10" freshman guard Grace Grocholski has had a great start to her college career. She averages 11.5 ppg and 4.1 rpg on 58.5% shooting on two-point attempts and 38.0% shooting on three-point tries.

6'5" Sophie Hart is Minnesota's post. She averages 10.2 ppg and 5.0 rpg on 58.7% shooting from two-point range. Hart was once an Iowa target in recruiting, but ended up at NC State. She didn't play much there over two seasons and transferred back to home state Minnesota this past off-season.

6'1" forward Mallory Heyer is Minnesota's best rebounder. She averages 10.1 ppg and 8.2 rpg, while shooting 45.9% from inside the arc and 36.2% from beyond the three-point line.

Finally, 5'11 guard Amaya Battle averages 10.7 ppg, 5.7 apg, and 4.9 rpg. She's shooting 40.8% on two-point tries and 22.2% on three-pointers.

Minnesota averages 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 174th nationally. The Gophers play at one of the slower tempos in the Big Ten and will probably look to slow things down when possible against Iowa.

Offensively, Minnesota averages 71.9 points per game, which ranks 64th. They've shot the ball decently well from two-point range (48.5%, 81st) and three-point range (33.8%, 71st). They also rank in the Top 100 in assists per game (15.2, 59th) and turnovers per game (13.8, 68th).

Defensively, the Gophers have surrendered 63.7 points per game, which ranks 150th. Teams are shooting 45.7% against Minnesota from two-point range and 32.7% on three-pointers. The Gophers generate 8.0 steals per game (139th) and 1.9 blocks per game (335th). The only area where Minnesota ranks especially well is limiting fouls. The Gophers average just 14.2 fouls per game, which ranks 35th.

Don’t look ahead. Iowa has a huge game against Ohio State on Sunday and the Big Ten Tournament is next week. It would be tempting to not give full attention to a Minnesota team in freefall.

The key for this game is for Iowa to simply show up ready to play. If the Hawks are focused and control what they can control, they should build a comfortable margin by halftime. If not, the Hawkeyes could easily buy itself a 40 minute struggle where they aren't able to put the game completely out of reach.