WHO: #7 Seed Purdue Boilermakers (19-9, 10-8 Big Ten)
WHEN: Friday, March 3 at 5:30 PM CT
WHERE: Target Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
TV: Big Ten Network
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
Purdue might be playing for its NCAA Tournament life. On Tuesday, ESPN had Purdue listed as the last team to receive a bye into the NCAA Tournament. If true, that would mean Purdue is 5 spots from the bubble and likely safe after its victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.
But there’s no guarantee that ESPN is right. The Selection Committee in its first two Top 16 reveals differed from ESPN’s projects in some notable ways. The Committee’s last Top 16 release seemed to place higher emphasis on a team’s most recent results. That could be bad news for Purdue, as it lost to a bad Minnesota team and got blown out by Indiana in 2 of its last 3 regular season games.
A loss to Iowa wouldn’t hurt Purdue’s resume by itself. But a win here would almost certainly guarantee that Purdue will see its name in the bracket on Selection Sunday, safe from the play-in games. Because of that, we should expect Purdue to give Iowa its very best shot Friday night.
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Full disclosure: I started writing this preview Thursday morning. At the time, I felt relatively confident in a Purdue victory. For most of the Purdue-Wisconsin game, however, I wondered if that time was going to be wasted.
Wisconsin dominated the game early and led 30-12 in the second quarter. Purdue started to figure things out and came back in the second and third quarters, but didn’t actually take the lead back until 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Then with 10.8 seconds left, Wisconsin’s Maty Wilke buried a three to give the Badgers a 55-54 lead. It looked momentarily like Wisconsin would steal the game back.
But on the other end, Purdue’s Jayla Smith got open for a three and hit the biggest shot of her career so far to put Purdue up 57-55 with 4 seconds to play. Wisconsin got one final shot at the buzzer, but it was short and Purdue escaped the upset.
Purdue vs. Iowa Round 1
Iowa beat Purdue 83-68 when the two teams met in the regular season on December 29th in Iowa City. Iowa seized control of the game in the second quarter and held a 44-23 lead at halftime. Purdue battled back in the 3rd quarter and got as close as 11 before Iowa pulled away again.
Caitlin Clark had a fairly pedestrian game by her standards, scoring 24, grabbing 6 rebounds, and dishing 4 assists. McKenna Warnock had one of her best games of the season with 19 points and 9 rebounds. Monika Czinano took just 8 shots in the game and scored 12.
The big story from the Purdue game was the emergence of Hannah Stuelke. Stuelke scored 11 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in less than 11 minutes of game time.
Given how long ago the game was, I’m not sure there’s much we can take away from it other than that Stuelke’s athleticism could be an X-factor in the rematch.
Scouting Purdue
Like many Big Ten teams, Purdue’s offense rates ahead of its defense. Its offense rates 60th nationally in points per 100 possessions, while its defense ranks 150th in opponent’s points per 100 possessions. Purdue plays at a relatively slow pace (132nd nationally) so pace could also have an impact on the game.
Offensively, Purdue’s 53.2% shooting from 2 ranks 13th nationally. The Boilermakers also shoot well from the free throw line, but aren’t as good from three (97th nationally). Purdue also doesn’t grab many offensive rebounds, as its offensive rebounding rate ranks 289th.
Purdue is a much better defensive rebounding team ranking 75th. Purdue’s other defensive metrics are fairly unimpressive. The Boilermakers don’t get many steals, force many turnovers, and don’t block many shots. Their opponents shoot pretty well from both two and three.
Purdue’s Best Players
Purdue is a bit strange in that its leading scorers average the 3rd, 5th, and 6th most minutes on the team.
That starts with guard Lasha Petree, who averages 15.0 ppg on 46% shooting from 2 and 37.7% shooting from 3, but who only plays 23.7 minutes per game.
Forward Caitlyn Harper averages 10.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg. She shoots 61.8% from 2 and 34% from 3, but like Petree she only averages 24.4 minutes per game.
Guard Abbey Ellis is Purdue’s final double-digit scorer averaging 11.2 ppg. She shoots 54.8% from 2, 39% from 3, and an outstanding 90.8% from the line.
Purdue’s minutes leader (30.2 per game) is Jeanae Terry. She doesn’t score a ton (6.7 ppg), but does average 7.6 rpg, 6.5 apg, and 2.3 spg.
Key to the Game
Be ready to face Purdue. Iowa has faced trap games for most of the season, but this is clearly another one. The Hawks are coming off of an emotional victory over #2 Indiana on a last-second buzzer-beater from Clark. If they win this game, a rematch with a Maryland team that embarrassed Iowa just last week looms.
Purdue is a likely NCAA Tournament team itself and has a ton to play for. Iowa can’t afford to bask in the glory of the Indiana win or to look ahead too much to Maryland.
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