Preview: No. 6 Iowa WBB vs. No. 2 Indiana

WHO: #2 Indiana Hoosiers (26-1 overall, 16-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 1:00 PM CT (Sunday, February 26)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

Coming into the week, I was optimistic about Iowa’s chances against Indiana. The Hawks didn’t play well in Bloomington, yet were tied in the fourth quarter and only lost 87-78. I didn’t think Iowa would be favorites in the rematch, but a victory seemed possible.

Then the blowout loss to Maryland happened and now I don’t know what to think.

The Maryland game was troubling for two reasons. One, it showed Iowa how much Iowa’s offense struggles when a defense completely takes Monika Czinano away. We already somewhat knew that from games like the first Indiana-Iowa matchup, but Maryland doubled Czinano before entry passes and Iowa didn’t have an offensive answer.

Second, Maryland used a box-and-one defense with the player-to-player defender guarding Caitlin Clark, and for the first time all season, it worked to contain Clark’s offense. Clark faced frequent double teams, finishing with 18 points on 5-for-13 shooting and six turnovers, and the rest of the Hawkeyes didn’t shoot well enough to force a defensive change by the Terps.

Czinano being effectively contained was already an obstacle for Iowa’s offensive flow. If opposing teams have figured out how to slow Clark down at the same time, the Hawkeyes might be in real trouble.

It will be interesting to see if teams start replicating Maryland’s strategy and how Iowa responds. Perhaps tactical changes will help free Czinano up or give Clark more room to operate. Or maybe Iowa’s supporting cast can start hitting more shots or attacking the basket more to force the opposing teams into changes.

For a more in-depth review of Indiana’s top players, check out my preview of the first Indiana-Iowa game.

In the first Indiana game, post Mackenzie Holmes and guard Grace Berger led the way for the Hoosiers. Holmes is a likely first team All-American and she showed why in that game, scoring 24 points on 10-17 shooting and grabbing 6 rebounds. She also did a great job guarding Czinano, though the officiating was inconsistent. In the first half, Holmes was very physical in guarding Czinano, but didn’t get whistled for any fouls. She got whistled for four fouls in the second despite not really playing any differently.

Berger had one of her best games of the season against Iowa, scoring 26 points, dishing 6 assists, and grabbing 9 rebounds. She has deferred more to her teammates offensively this year, but stepped into the scoring role against Iowa with great success.

Holmes and Berger needed to carry such a big load in the first game because Indiana’s supporting cast was in foul trouble for much of the game. Yarden Garzon and Sydney Parrish are both capable scorers and shooters, yet they played just 24 and 21 minutes respectively in the first game before fouling out. I expect both to have a bigger impact in this one.

Indiana is probably the most balanced offense Iowa has faced yet this year. The game in Bloomington showed that Iowa has a significant challenge in trying to contain Holmes and Berger. But even if Iowa manages to slow them down, Garzon, Parrish, or Sara Scalia could step up and have a big game.

Clark led Iowa with 35 points and 10 assists in Bloomington, but shot just 12/28 from the floor. If Indiana deploys a similar defensive strategy in game two, Clark’s shooting might be make-or-break for Iowa’s offense.

Czinano scored just 6 points on 3/6 shooting against Indiana the first time around. She struggled with foul trouble throughout the game, but Indiana also did a great job defensively of clogging every possible passing lane to Czinano. Iowa’s challenge in this game is twofold: 1) find a way to get Czinano the ball more, and 2) find a way to slow down Holmes while keeping Czinano out of foul trouble. Both are easier said than done.

McKenna Warnock had one of her best games of the season in the first game, scoring 14 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Warnock’s shooting is one of the keys to Iowa’s offense. She’s usually one of the best shooters in the country, but struggled in the last game against Maryland. Hopefully her shooting will be back on track Sunday.

Finally, Hannah Stuelke was great from the floor against Indiana going 5/5, but she was also 0-8 from the free throw line. Hopefully Stuelke will be better at the line in front of the familiar Iowa crowd. She could make a big difference if Indiana contains Czinano again.

Play with passion. Maryland was a buzzsaw in the second quarter of last week's game, overwhelming the Hawkeyes. By the time the deficit hit 20, the Hawks looked and played defeated for the rest of the game. Iowa has the talent to beat Indiana, but it will only do so if the players show up thinking they can win, and play like it’s a huge game. With College GameDay in town and Senior Day festivities to celebrate, that shouldn't be an issue.